The AVS-M5S alliance against rearmament is causing concern within the PD. Schlein at a crossroads

Elly Schlein says some things and leaves others unsaid. She is opposed to rearmament and increased NATO spending, but cannot go as far as her allies do. For the M5S and AVS, this is becoming an increasingly central issue: they are stepping up their efforts and raising their voices, through parliamentary questions and initiatives.

There is a date that could once again put the broad coalition to the test, and even more so the balance of power within the PD: 5 August. A statement by the Minister for the Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, is scheduled at the Chamber of Deputies. The topic? The national safeguard clauses: the first step towards accessing European flexibility, with talk of €14 billion (0.3 per cent of GDP) to be allocated between energy and defence. Parliament’s approval is required, as is a mandate for the government; resolutions will be put to the vote. While the majority may get away with a unified document, the picture could be more complicated within the opposition. It is well known that within the PD, setting aside Schlein’s stance, there are various viewpoints on defence. AVS and the M5S, on the other hand, are sticking to their guns, sharing virtually the same line: opposed to any increase in military spending, both within NATO and in relation to SAFE. Yesterday provided another glimpse of this. Nicola Fratoianni highlighted this during Question Time, pressing Giorgetti on “the mad rearmament”, which, for the AVS leader, means less healthcare and cuts to social spending. And so, quoting De Andrè: “We must go in a stubborn and contrary direction”. Shortly afterwards, his colleagues from the M5S also went on the offensive against the government, which “has run healthcare, education and growth into the ground” yet wants to increase defence spending (a necessity already reiterated that morning – before the joint Foreign Affairs and Defence Committees – by Ministers Antonio Tajani and Guido Crosetto, who is meanwhile reserving his share for the next budget bill: “3.5 per cent of GDP in 2035? A choice of national responsibility”). The reassurances from the Minister for the Economy and Finance were of little use; he is still taking his time over the SAFE and is passing the buck to Parliament regarding the defence budget deviation: both the AVS and the M5S will continue to press the issue, in a tone that risks causing some embarrassment for the Nazareno coalition: the Democrats are adopting a somewhat more cautious stance (and yesterday the PD asked Giorgetti about delays regarding the Municipal Solidarity Fund). Not only that: when the matter is debated in the Chamber in early August, Schlein will also have to take into account the various factions within her party, ranging from former Defence Minister Lorenzo Guerini – backed by reformists – who is convinced that investment in defence is needed, to Giuseppe Provenzano, who in recent days has opened up on the SAFE and criticised the remarks of his ally-rival Conte regarding the ‘non-existent Russian threat’. These were remarks that even Schlein did not take kindly to, explaining her opposition to rearmament with other arguments. The AVS and the M5S have already made it clear that they will not support the budget deviation, but another internal debate could arise within the Democratic Party – if not a new rift on the left, as the majority hopes. Furthermore, after the summer, the M5S will organise another stop on its anti-rearmament tour in Palermo (the first took place in Ostia). These will be the days when the party programme – and subsequently the leadership – will be debated: the suspicion amongst the Democrats is that Conte’s pacifist campaign could give the impression of a belligerent PD, in favour of military support for Kyiv. Today, the Milex report on military spending will be presented in the Chamber of Deputies. The conference was organised by Democrat Laura Boldrini, but Fratoianni and M5S’s Licheri will also be present. For now, Schlein has kept her distance from the rhetoric of Conte’s allies. But in September, the contest will really heat up, perhaps with primaries. This will be the litmus test: should she follow the pack or set herself apart? It is the party leader’s crossroads.