Meloni, ‘the stubborn one’. She corners Tajani on the issue of preferences

Preferential votes are her pound of flesh, and Tajani must pledge Forza Italia, his ring, as collateral. Meloni wants preferential votes; she wants them in the Senate committee, by open vote. Her allies now call her “the stubborn one”. She tells Tajani, over lunch at Chigi, alongside Salvini and Lupi during a summit – a tense one due to the Saudis’ request, the war, and the accounts that don’t add up – “Preferential votes are a matter of loyalty. We must vote for them. I’m not backing down.” She tells him she intends to resubmit the amendment in the Senate and then call for a vote of confidence in the Chamber of Deputies. A stunned Tajani tries to explain to her that they risk being defeated again, that we’ve already lost once, “think about it”. Rumours spread that Tajani has capitulated, that he has said “yes” and that, at Arcore, Marina and Pier Silvio Berlusconi are furious. In the League, they warn: “Either we give in or Meloni will go to the polls on her own. Or with Vannacci.” There is a whiff of ethnic replacement, of Tajani being ousted.

Stefano Benigni, who drafted the electoral law on behalf of Forza Italia, when asked ‘But does Meloni want to replace you with Vannacci?’, replied: ‘Not under the new law, but with the Rosatellum anything is possible. I wouldn’t rule it out’. Meloni wants to try again in the Senate; she wants to resubmit that ill-fated amendment, which failed by a single vote, because she intends to run her entire election campaign presenting herself as ‘the president who restored the preferential votes’, or perhaps because Vannacci is there, continuing to challenge her over preferential votes, or perhaps, once again, to have a reason to break away… In the Chamber, the preliminary agreements on autonomy are being voted on and the League presents a united front, with all its ministers present. Giorgetti is also present; on that day of embarrassment, he was in the Chamber of Deputies, despite being on official business. He was wandering about, convinced that the amendment wouldn’t pass anyway and that there would be more than one vote against it – yet it was his vote that was missing. Only a few sympathetic newspapers spared him the embarrassment, asking: “Dear Minister, what on earth were you doing in the Chamber of Deputies? But dear Minister, of all the places you could have been, did you really have to be in the Chamber of Deputies?” They say that to convince Meloni, they reminded her: “Did you see? Last time even Giorgetti was missing. Just think what might happen if we try again.”

Except that with Meloni, the effect is the opposite. The challenge fires up her generals, fires up the Donzellis – leaders who could have held ministerial posts but who instead chose to remain MPs, taking their lumps and dishing them out in the Chamber. Whenever they are asked why they are taking the risk again, and regarding the preference votes, why? Donzelli replies: “Either you have courage, or else we would have opted for a civil service recruitment process.” They believe in it, there’s no doubt about that, and not just because for Meloni it’s a way to get people moving, to pit leaders and new energies against one another. There’s a strategy behind it. On the left, only the PD has preference votes; the M5S doesn’t; AVS has a symbolic vote. Meloni tells her allies: “Trust me.”

In the Senate, the procedure is straightforward: the vote takes place in the Constitutional Affairs Committee, and who will have the courage, in an open vote, to vote against Meloni? Except that the bill then returns to the Chamber of Deputies. The solution is to call a vote of confidence, but as Benigni explains: “In the end, there will be a secret ballot. Who can guarantee there won’t be an ambush? Even last time there was an agreement between the leaders, but the Chamber is a different matter. There are concerns amongst women, and there are men who fear being sidelined by regional councillors with greater support.” From London, Maurizio Gasparri acknowledges: “If it is decided to reopen the issue of preferences, it is clear that there is a risk.” The party reacts. Rumours are circulating that Tajani has given in, and that Meloni has demanded a ‘test of loyalty’. There is also talk of friction with Stefania Craxi, who represents the family. Tajani emerges weakened. The official statement from Chigi makes no mention of the electoral law, but refers to energy and the possibility of accessing the NEC – the national safeguard clause – which allows for the use of European funds. It amounts to 14 billion, but it will require a parliamentary vote. Is this the same Parliament that voted against preferential voting? These are resources, but they already feel like the illusion of a fairy-tale budget: 14 billion to spend on soaring energy costs, pensions and who knows what else… It’s the windfall that Salvini wants to use – the same Salvini who says yes to preferential votes because, in his mind, “we have Zaia, Durigon, Fedriga. Preferential votes help us”.

Forza Italia remains increasingly isolated. There is common ground between the Lega and FdI on harsh penalties and the death penalty; they agree on extending the scope of self-defence, and on the Lega’s latest proposal, which has been revived: bail for protesters. These are signs of a blue-green-black coalition government. Meloni has responded to those urging her to reply to Vannacci. She has distanced herself but has called on the left to do the same when “the police are discredited”. A member of parliament from Futuro Nazionale is now making this claim, opening up new possibilities. It is Gianangelo Bof, a former Lega member and mayor: “Italy is ready for a Meloni-Vannacci government. Salvini has no choice. Forza Italia will give birth to the third pole.” In Vannacci’s trashy video, Conte and Schlein were linked, but the real hostage was missing: Tajani, the Iphigenia at Colle Oppio.