Meloni’s fallout. She is considering retaliation against the League and Forza Italia but wants a ‘fully operational’ government

She is disappointed by her allies but is putting ‘further reflection’ on hold for now. Giorgia Meloni expects her majority to at least limit the damage: the smooth passage of the electoral law, which is due to be voted on this morning in the Chamber of Deputies, again by secret ballot. On Tuesday, the Prime Minister had realised which way the wind was blowing. She confided her gloomy predictions to a minister. And so she decided to issue a pre-emptive appeal to the opposition, against the secret ballot. Certainly, the Prime Minister now wants to counter the ‘quagmire’ within the government. “If we are able, we will press ahead; otherwise, we will bow to the will of the voters,” Minister Lollobrigida echoes her sentiments. A streamlined agenda is being drawn up: the nuclear energy bill, the renewal of public sector contracts. And then: security. Preferential voting? They will try again in the Senate.

Since early this morning, attempts have been made to piece together the incident. Within Fratelli d’Italia, two camps are at odds: those, like Minister Lollobrigida, who want to know the “full names” of those who have betrayed the party; and those on the other side, such as Giovanni Donzelli, who are already looking ahead: “No to the hunt for mavericks. There will be no impact on the government”. In the middle are those who are doing the maths: “Lone wolves within FdI? Four or five at most. But in the centre-right there are more than forty. The problem for the allies is quite different”. In reality, the quest for unity is short-lived and is shaken by an unusual convergence in the Chamber. When Edoardo Ziello, a supporter of Vannacci, tables an amendment to the electoral law calling for preferential votes, Meloni’s supporters back him en masse, with 139 votes in favour. Initially, the government had opposed the move, but then deferred the decision to the Chamber. It did not pass due to opposition from the League and Forza Italia, described by Vannacci as “Badogliani”, but it was enough to spark speculation about a reshuffle of the majority. “Us with Vannacci? No, it’s all still far too premature,” says another senior official from the Prime Minister’s party. The Minister for European Affairs, Tommaso Foti, also appears in the Transatlantico corridor; he is one of those who speaks out most strongly during the debate: “We should have been more cautious.” But the rebuke to his allies stops there. And yet, whilst walking through the Chamber, a Forza Italia MP does not seem particularly distraught about the vote on preferences: “It was a great exercise in democracy.” Gianni Letta also makes an appearance at Montecitorio. At one point, a fake news agency report circulates in a journalists’ chat group: “Meloni heads to the Quirinale. Tensions at the end of the summit”. This gives an idea of the atmosphere, which hovers between the serious and the comical.

The leadership of FdI is signalling its intention to try again in the Senate. There, as Ignazio La Russa explained, there is no secret ballot. In short, should preferential voting be introduced in the Senate, the bill could return to the Chamber of Deputies for a third reading. And there, the majority could call for a vote of confidence, by open ballot. These are all speculations designed to circumvent any rulings by the Constitutional Court (which could declare closed lists unconstitutional and introduce preferential voting through judicial intervention). However, they do not align with the scenario of an early election: given that approval in the Senate would not take place before September, followed by a return to the Chamber of Deputies and the Budget session, the third reading would not take place before next year. “But for now, let’s be content with getting this bill through,” Donzelli notes once again with a pragmatic spirit. Yesterday, a number of key amendments were approved, including the majority bonus for parties securing 42 per cent of the vote and voting rights for those living away from their constituency.

There was talk of ways to break the deadlock. Meloni does not want to let go of issues she considers priorities, starting with security. With Salvini once again hammering home the point by calling for a pardon for the jeweller Mario Roggero, sentenced to over 14 years. But also with a roadmap, between now and the end of the summer, that conveys the impression of a ‘fully operational’ government: from the long-debated nuclear power decree, through to the renewal of public sector contracts (yesterday saw the renewal of the 2025–2027 Security and Defence sector agreement, signed by Minister Zangrillo, which will benefit around 500,000 law enforcement officers. And a new decree-law is also ready for the public sector). But there are also measures aimed at businesses: for example, the reform of incentives being drawn up by Urso (who, when pressed in the Chamber of Deputies yesterday on the government’s stability, limited himself to saying: “I only comment on matters falling strictly within my ministerial remit”). The same applies to the Special Economic Zones (SEZs) being called for by the northern regions. Not to mention the promises made by Meloni to the trade unions (namely CISL and UIL) regarding the forthcoming Budget Law. This is a constituency the Prime Minister does not wish to alienate. In the background, relations with Salvini and Tajani remain tense, as was evident in the telephone call she had with the two on Tuesday evening, immediately after the vote of no confidence. The implication is that, for now, the hatchet must be buried. Only to be unearthed again at the right moment. It is no coincidence, in short, that even within the Lega there are those who admit: “We’ve well and truly thrown away our chance at differentiated autonomy.”