European defence needs oil

The two scenarios – the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East – are once again proving to be far more than merely linked. Because a defence apparatus, in order to function, needs energy. Yesterday, French President Emmanuel Macron, the current G7 chair, said that a meeting of member countries would be held in the coming weeks to strengthen cooperation on energy issues. In the event of a Russian attack on a NATO member state, the problem lies in the overall availability of petroleum products: diesel for lorries, tanks and generators; petrol for light vehicles; marine fuel; jet fuel for aviation; and, above all, the capacity to refine and distribute all of this where it is needed.

According to Bloomberg, Saudi Aramco warned its European buyers yesterday that it may not be able to deliver the crude oil stipulated in contracts in October, following the attack on the East-West pipeline, dealing yet another blow to an energy system already under pressure: the European Union requires member states to maintain stocks equivalent to at least 90 days’ worth of net imports or 61 days’ worth of consumption, but these reserves may consist of crude oil and various petroleum products. And by 2026, the global system had already drawn down an exceptional portion of its buffer: according to the International Energy Agency, global stocks have fallen by around 507 million barrels since the start of the war in the Middle East, and the Agency’s member countries have already used over 300 million barrels from their emergency reserves. Brussels also states that there is currently no physical fuel shortage in the EU, but highlights particular volatility regarding diesel and jet fuel: 40 per cent of what we import comes from the Strait of Hormuz. If Europe were to face a conventional war on its eastern flank tomorrow, the main problem would be fuel: this is why there is suddenly an unprecedented collective sense of alarm on this issue.