How the ANM disseminated false data on the increase in magistrates’ salaries

At this point, there are only two possibilities: either the ANM is deliberately lying, or it has made a spectacular error in its calculations. We are talking about pay rises, and the related payment of arrears, for around 11,200 magistrates (ordinary, accounting and administrative magistrates, as well as state lawyers) following the rulings of the Council of State which altered the method for calculating pay adjustments. The news of the significant impact on the public finances was reported on 16 October by Gianni Trovati in Il Sole 24 Ore, who, based on the tables in the Budget Policy Document (DPB), revealed the existence of 979 million in the ‘Judgements Fund’ earmarked for the payment of rulings in favour of magistrates: the nearly one billion allocated in the budget, divided amongst the approximately 11,000 beneficiaries, made it possible to calculate the per capita cost of the measure, summarised in the headline as ‘up to 100,000 euros per person’.

The news item, which is in itself neutral and based on estimates from the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and the State Audit Office, provoked a vehement reaction from the associated judiciary, which spoke of “sensationalist reports and falsehoods aimed at attacking magistrates”. In an article in Questione giustizia, the magazine of Magistratura Democratica (a left-wing faction), a magistrate even described the report in Il Sole 24 Ore as a “shameful scoop”. The ANM immediately responded in a statement that “the figures are far lower”, adding that for a magistrate with 20 years’ experience, the amount “does not even reach a quarter”. In the days that followed, the ANM circulated estimates via the press and social media: a newly appointed magistrate is due 45 euros net per month from 2021 and 94 euros from 2024, totalling 7,000 euros in arrears; whilst for a magistrate at the end of their service, the total would be 17,000 euros. In subsequent interviews given by ANM leaders, this figure was revised downwards further. “It is a complete lie,” President Giuseppe Tango told La Repubblica, referring to the figures from the Dpb: his estimate is 5,000 euros for a junior magistrate and 15,000 for a senior one. The ANM’s Secretary-General, Rocco Maruotti, gave the same estimate in an interview with Radio 24.

Who is telling a lie? In short: the ANM. To understand why, we need to delve into some rather technical matters. Adjustments to magistrates’ salaries are determined on a three-yearly basis, by calculating the per capita average of the pay rises received by other categories of public sector employees over the previous three-year period. For decades, Istat has carried out this calculation in the simplest and most accurate way possible: by taking a weighted average, that is, by assigning each sector a weighting corresponding to its size.

The Council of State, on the other hand, upheld the appeal lodged by fellow magistrates, ruling that the method that had always been used was no longer acceptable: the simple average must be used, giving equal weight to each category regardless of the number of staff, for the explicit reason that smaller sectors receive higher pay rises. Under the old weighted average method, magistrates received increases of 4.84 per cent for the three-year period 2021–23 and 6.22 per cent for 2024–26; under the new method of the gross average, the increases have risen to 6.69 per cent for 2021–23 and 12.32 per cent for 2024–26. The government must therefore pay the difference, bearing in mind that in the second and third years of the three-year period, the salary increases by 30 per cent of the increase provided for on a three-year basis.

In their estimates for the Draft Budget Law (DPB), officials at the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) have projected a cost of €241 million to bring the Prime Ministerial Decree (DPCM) for the 2021–23 period into line with the court rulings (€209 million for arrears and €32 million once fully implemented), and a cost of €738 million (518 for arrears and 220 once fully implemented): a total of 979 million. The significant difference in cost between the two DPCMs is due in part to the fact that the increase for the second three-year period is substantial (+5.63 percentage points) and in part because this percentage is applied to a base that has itself been increased by the ruling relating to the previous three-year period: the growth in the two DPCMs acts like compound interest.

However, the ANM is circulating estimates made over a year ago, which are significantly lower, as they relate solely to the Prime Ministerial Decree of 6 August 2021 (the 2021–23 three-year period), whilst completely obscuring the effects of the Prime Ministerial Decree of 3 June 2024 (the 2024–26 three-year period). While it is true that the appeals relating to the second three-year period in question are still sub judice, there have already been three consistent rulings by the Lazio Regional Administrative Court upholding the appeals of the magistrates (ordinary and administrative), which are, of course, in line with the final rulings of the Council of State relating to the 2021–23 three-year period. The impact of these rulings on the public finances, as estimated by the RGS, is, as mentioned, 738 million euros: three-quarters of the one billion (979 million) allocated by the government.

The updated calculations, which are circulating amongst the ministries dealing with the matter, are easily worked out. The combined effect of the rulings on the two three-year renewal cycles, for a young ordinary magistrate who, between 2021 and 2026, has in the meantime received an initial professional assessment, amounts to approximately 14,000 euros net in arrears (approximately 29,000 euros gross), to which must be added approximately 5,000 euros net per year once the scheme is fully operational (10,000 euros gross). To these costs must be added approximately 14,000 euros in charges borne by the public administration (contributions, severance pay, IRAP, etc.), bringing the total cost to the public purse to approximately 53,000 euros.

For a senior magistrate with a seventh-level professional assessment, having served for between 30 and 35 years, the arrears amount to 30,000 euros net (64,000 euros gross), to which must be added 10,500 euros net per annum once the scheme is fully operational (22,000 euros gross) and 32,000 euros in costs borne by the public administration: in total, this amounts to a cost of 118,000 euros to the public purse (therefore exceeding the conservative estimate of ‘up to 100,000 euros’ made by Il Sole 24 Ore). The pay rise resulting from the court rulings amounts to 10 per cent once fully implemented, pending further increases for 2027–29. To these sums must also be added the effects on severance pay (TFR), which for magistrates is calculated using the remuneration-based method (based on the final years’ salary).

In short, the ANM has recently been spreading misinformation and unjustly accusing journalists who have been conscientiously doing their jobs of spreading ‘falsehoods’. ‘It is not up to us to provide the final figure; that is not our job,’ ANM president Tango told La Repubblica whilst spreading false figures. The worst possible way to be inconsistent.

There is, however, still one way to bring the ANM’s estimates closer to reality: to withdraw all the appeals already won at the Lazio Regional Administrative Court (TAR) for the three-year period 2024–26. Taxpayers would save 738 million euros and the magistrates could say – this time quite rightly – that the Meloni government had gone too far in wanting to give the judiciary a huge amount of money which, given the country’s difficult economic situation, the magistrates no longer want. Alternatively, the ANM should apologise for having distorted the public debate by spreading bogus figures.

P.S.: Yesterday evening, after Il Foglio had reported the issue to the ANM, the judges’ union acknowledged the error, stating that new tables are being prepared with estimates that include the impact on salaries of both Prime Ministerial Decrees.