Too many homes that are unoccupied, too few where people work. Figures on the housing crisis

Between 2015 and 2024, the median real income of Italians rose by just 7.4 per cent, compared with an EU average of 24 per cent. With wages so ‘stagnant’, one might think that the main obstacle to buying a home is income itself, but it is not the only one. This is also because, according to estimates based on Eurostat data contained in the report ‘Abitare l’Italia di domani’, commissioned by Assonime and Confindustria Assoimmobiliare in collaboration with the Einaudi Centre, between 2015 and 2025 the ratio of house prices to income fell by 12.9 per cent in Italy, whilst the EU average rose by 6.4 per cent. The problem is that national averages, in this case, fail to adequately explain the Italian housing crisis. For whilst, on the one hand, the country as a whole enjoys an abundance of housing (35.6 million homes), the housing crisis is instead caused by a severe shortage of affordable homes in the very places where demand is currently concentrated: in the cities that attract workers and students.

There are 9.5 million homes that are either vacant or occupied by non-residents, but these are mainly located where demand is weakest. Furthermore, the figure also includes second homes. Istat figures show that, at the end of 2023, an average of 55 per cent of homes were occupied in rural areas, compared with 84.5 per cent in towns and cities. Among the regions, the highest proportions were recorded in Lazio (81 per cent), Lombardy (79.4 per cent) and Emilia-Romagna (78.7 per cent). Meanwhile, in Valle d’Aosta, 56.1 per cent of homes are unoccupied; in Molise, the figure is 44.2 per cent; and in Calabria, 42.2 per cent. The geographical distribution of unoccupied homes does not always coincide with the areas where they are in demand.

The result is that the scarcity of the asset makes it more expensive. By cross-referencing Omi property price data with 2023 taxable income figures, the report calculates that to buy an 80-square-metre home in the province of Milan, one would need 10.7 years’ worth of average net income, without spending a single cent on other expenses. In the province of Rome, it takes 9.3 years, whilst in the median Italian province it takes just 5. Again at provincial level, to rent a 55-square-metre flat in Rome (or a 50-square-metre flat in Venice), one must allocate 30 per cent of the average income; however, with that same proportion of income in Messina, one can rent 193 square metres, in Asti 162 and in Rieti 158.

There is also a vulnerable segment of the housing market, as shown by the data published yesterday by Istat, according to which almost one million households living in rented accommodation were living in absolute poverty in 2025. In total, the ATERs manage 797,000 homes, accounting for 2.3 per cent of Italian housing stock (if council-owned homes are included, the estimate rises to 3–4 per cent), a figure well below the EU average of 8 per cent. The government’s Housing Plan allocates 970 million euros to make around 60,000 public housing units – currently unusable – available for allocation. However, this may not be enough, as the waiting list is long. Take Rome, for example, where – as the report states – in 2024 the Ater made fewer than 90 housing units available, compared with nearly 18,000 households on the waiting list.

Furthermore, the hardships and difficulties associated with accessing housing may also go unreported in the statistics. Those who continue to live in the family home – perhaps because their income is too low to pay rent, or because they have an unstable job – are postponing their independence in terms of housing. At what age do young Italians leave their parents’ home? According to Eurostat data, at 30.2 years, compared with the EU average of 26.3.

According to a calculation by the authors of the report – which they describe as a simplification with a margin of uncertainty – in order to meet housing needs, around 150,000 homes would need to be added each year, in addition to those that become vacant. And this is particularly true in the metropolitan areas of central and northern Italy: 39,000 a year in Rome, 35,000 in Milan and 13,000 in Bologna. Naples would need just 3,000, as it loses around 15,000 residents a year to other parts of Italy. According to Istat, however, in 2025 building permits were issued for 51,908 new homes, 6.1 per cent fewer than in 2024, whilst in the first half of the year the institute recorded 26,421, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.5 per cent.

The report proposes various measures to support national housing policies, ranging from recognising the homes of professional landlords as capital assets to allocating part of the revenue from the so-called ‘flat tax for the rich’ – who are moving to Italy – to social housing in Milan, Rome and Florence.