“The diesel deal between Putin and Trump only serves Moscow’s interests”. Nicolazzi speaks out

“The agreement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on diesel is pointless,” Massimo Nicolazzi, chairman of ISAB (which operates one of Italy’s largest refineries) and an expert in energy geopolitics at ISPI, tells Il Foglio, commenting on the deal that Washington has struck with Moscow to succeed – or at least give the impression of trying – to lower diesel prices. Trump welcomed the agreement with enthusiasm and precise figures: Russia would immediately supply around 300,000 tonnes of diesel to the American and global markets before the November mid-term elections, followed by further deliveries. Converted into barrels, the quantities amount to just over 2 million immediately, and then over 30 million. “As Giuliano Ferrara wrote, Trump has got a tankful of lentils, and in fact there isn’t even room here for the lamb,” Nicolazzi quips, downplaying the actual impact of the agreement on the pockets of American and European consumers.

Nor will Canada’s move have much of an impact: Prime Minister Mark Carney has condemned the agreement between Trump and Putin and assured that “he will continue to maximise his exports of oil and diesel to the United States, which amount to well over a million barrels of diesel a day”. According to Nicolazzi, “it’s as if he’d said that even though the United States has played a nasty trick, he’ll carry on selling – business as usual”. A message to the United States, but also to Europe. And it does indeed seem to be a ‘prank’, given that the barrels covered by the agreement between Russia and the United States correspond to around 16 hours of US consumption, 10 hours of US production and 14 days of Canadian imports, according to calculations by The Atlantic. Not enough to really affect diesel prices on international markets, notes Nicolazzi. “Following the news, the price in the United States fell by 4 per cent. Today it has fallen by 0.0026. So there has been a slight drop in price, but it seems to have stopped straight away.” So much so that “today’s price is still higher than the entire range of prices for June, July and August”. Not even the gradual release of reserves announced by the G7 has managed to slow the rise in energy prices, despite the volumes being significantly higher than those agreed by Trump and Putin: we are, in fact, talking about a coordinated release of 100 million barrels of oil and refined products over a four-month period through the International Energy Agency, with a significant proportion of diesel to be made available within the first twenty days.

“The only way to bring prices down is to significantly increase the supply of diesel,” notes Nicolazzi. “And there isn’t a single refiner that isn’t being encouraged to produce at full capacity. The problem, however, is that the lost refining capacity cannot be replaced in the short term, and this applies both to the war between Russia and Ukraine and to the conflict in the Gulf, where, from an aerial view, virtually no refinery has emerged unscathed from the attacks.” And this brings us to another critical point in the vague and imprecise agreement between Washington and Moscow. “According to the sources at our disposal, the Russians might manage to honour an initial part of the agreement, albeit with some difficulty. But to fulfil all their commitments, the refineries will need to be repaired quickly and run more efficiently than before, or they will have to cut domestic consumption.” Furthermore, exporting diesel to the United States, according to the expert, “is like carrying pots to Samo”. The United States’ net diesel exports in 2025 stood at 53.4 million tonnes. “I am certain that they do not need that Russian diesel.” The impact of this agreement, therefore, would not be economic, but rather political. “Trump is telling his voters: ‘If we get rid of Zelensky, the price of diesel will fall.’ Which coincides with Putin’s intentions.”