Large companies are driving growth. The Mediobanca study

In 2025, large and medium-sized Italian companies invested more than in any other year since 2016 and maintained higher profit margins than those they had prior to 2023. Labour costs per employee, which include gross pay and employer contributions, have not, however, kept pace with inflation: in 2025, they were still, on average and in real terms, 5.9 per cent lower than in 2021. These are the findings of the annual “Cumulative Data” survey, based on the financial statements of 1,700 industrial and service companies (which include almost all Italian firms with more than 500 employees and account for 43 per cent of national industrial turnover), published by Mediobanca’s Research Department.

In 2025, corporate revenues returned to growth after two years of decline, albeit by just 0.5 per cent compared with 2024 and mainly thanks to exports. Despite the shockwave caused by tariffs, exports rose by 3.3 per cent, whilst domestic sales in Italy fell by 1 per cent. Overall, the manufacturing sector outperformed the average: revenues rose by 1.7 per cent (+2.9 per cent for overseas sales and +0.3 per cent domestically). Compared with 2016, revenues have risen by 39.6 per cent in nominal terms over the past ten years, against cumulative inflation of 21.4 per cent over the same period, and different sectors have followed varying trends: the automotive sector, for example, saw its revenues fall by 8.4 per cent, whilst shipyards more than doubled theirs.

As for corporate margins, research by Mediobanca’s Research Department indicates that in 2025, for every 100 euros of revenue, companies retained an average of 6.7 euros in operating profit, the same as in 2024 and above the average of 5.6 euros recorded between 2016 and 2022. Also in 2025, the 1,700 companies that took part in the survey invested 35.5 billion euros in plant, machinery and buildings: at constant prices, this was the highest level since 2016. In this regard, the manufacturing sector recorded €25.7 billion in investment, whilst investment in the services sector remained at €9.9 billion. Companies did not take on more debt than usual: their debts to banks and bondholders amounted to 73.8 per cent of their assets in 2025, compared with an average of 78.9 per cent between 2016 and 2024. The number of employees also rose by 1.3 per cent in 2025 compared with 2024 and by 11.8 per cent over the decade. However, according to data collected by Mediobanca, the growth over the decade came entirely from private companies, which increased their workforce by 16.3 per cent, whilst those controlled by public bodies reduced theirs by 4.9 per cent.

Mediobanca also calculates the residual value remaining to companies after all parties involved in the business have been remunerated, including equity holders, and after all costs have been paid: between 2016 and 2025, this averaged 9,300 euros per year per employee. Over the same ten-year period, however, labour costs per employee – that is, gross salary and social security contributions – rose by 18.8 per cent, which is less than the increase in productivity, which grew by 22.6 per cent. Adjusted for inflation (21.4 per cent, cumulative), in 2025 an employee cost businesses 2.2 per cent less than in 2016. Mediobanca describes this trend as “disappointing in real terms” and calculates what would be needed to close the gap with the real wages of 2021: in 2025, the average cost per employee should have been around 71,500 euros instead of 67,300, i.e. around 4,200 euros more.

In any case, data compiled by other institutions show that contract renewals have not been sufficient to offset the price rises of 2022 and 2023. One example is the Bank of Italy, which in January 2026 (or, more recently, the OECD) noted in its economic bulletin that contractual wages in November 2025 were still 7.7 per cent below those of January 2021 in real terms, attributing the shortfall to slower contract renewals and the less widespread use of inflation-adjustment clauses.