Economy
the data •
The OECD raises its forecasts for Italy, but everything depends on the Gulf
GDP growth of up to 0.9 per cent in 2026, almost double the figure forecast in June. However, inflation is rising and the global economy is slowing down.
At the OECD headquarters in Paris (Antoine Antoniol/Getty Images)
These days, an upward revision is no small matter. In the Interim Economic Outlook presented today in Paris, the OECD estimates that Italy’s GDP will grow by 0.9 per cent in 2026. In June, it had forecast 0.5 per cent: in three months, the estimates have risen by four decimal points, and this year’s growth would be almost double that of 2025, which also stands at 0.5 per cent. For 2027, the forecast remains unchanged at 0.6 per cent. In short, the upturn is not expected to last.
Italy, however, remains below the eurozone average. For the eurozone as a whole, the OECD forecasts growth of one per cent both this year and next, supported by the normalisation of energy prices and defence spending. The global picture is slowing down: global GDP is set to fall from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to 2.9 per cent in 2026, before rising again to 3 per cent in 2027. The United States will grow by just 2.2 per cent, as investment in artificial intelligence only partially offsets the decline in consumption and real incomes. China’s growth will fall to 4.5 per cent.
The flip side of the coin is inflation. In Italy, the OECD forecasts inflation at 3 per cent in 2026 and 2.6 per cent in 2027, four tenths of a percentage point higher than the June estimates. Energy prices are a key factor, having risen again due to production disruptions in the Gulf, high refining margins and the rising cost of certain agricultural commodities affected by extreme weather. The report, entitled “Weathering Successive Shocks”, links the entire outlook to a lasting resolution of the conflict in the Middle East. If energy markets normalise quickly, prices will ease and growth will hold up. Further disruptions, by contrast, would lead to higher inflation and lower GDP.
Two risks remain. The first is long-term interest rates, which in many economies are at their highest levels for at least fifteen years, driven by concerns over public finances and the massive bond issues by AI companies. The second is US protectionism: according to the OECD, the new bilateral tariffs in force since July have raised the US’s average effective tax rate by around one percentage point. For a country with low growth and high debt, these are not mere details.