The patient: Agricole. If Lovaglio’s move goes ahead, the controlling shareholder will be French

If the complex Lovaglio deal goes through, if the market really does count for anything, if there are no political obstacles or diktats such as ‘golden power’ (‘and I emphasise “if”’, as Mina would sing), the largest shareholder in the new third banking bloc will be Crédit Agricole, with a stake estimated at 15 per cent – though this is set to grow, just as it has always done both at home and in Italy. A long-standing economist and banker who wishes to remain anonymous to avoid conflicts of interest (even though he is not directly involved) throughout this never-ending Italian game of Risk has always urged us journalists—who are fascinated by power games and behind-the-scenes manoeuvring—to look at the fundamentals. The most fundamental of all is capital, and the co-operatives are brimming with it; they are not obliged to distribute large profits (when they do not distribute them at all) and ensure stability at the helm. Theirs is patient capital, and this is how Crédit Agricole has also grown, expanding into more profitable sectors such as wealth management.

Together with Société Générale, he founded Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager, whilst the group of cooperative banks formed in the wake of the 2006–2008 crisis went on to establish Natixis. Agricole is Europe’s third-largest bank by total assets after BNP and HSBC, according to S&P Global Market (Intesa and Unicredit are in thirteenth and fourteenth place), though it lags behind in terms of market capitalisation at around 58 billion euros – roughly half that of Unicredit and Intesa (Mps currently stands at 35 billion). It was founded in the second half of the nineteenth century as a network of mutual savings banks spread across the country, providing small loans to farmers. At the turn of the 20th century, it was organised into a complex pyramid structure which remains in place today, despite having been simplified: at the base are 2,447 local credit unions; above these, 39 regional credit unions, through the holding company Rue de la Boétie, hold the majority stake in the public limited company Crédit Agricole S.A., which has been listed on the Paris stock exchange since 2001.

The pivotal year of its arrival on this side of the Alps was 1989, when the bank was invited by Giovanni Bazoli to act as a ‘white knight’. These were the days of Catholic finance pitted against secular finance, and the lawyer from Brescia – called upon to resurrect Banco Ambrosiano from the ashes after it had been brought to its knees by Roberto Calvi – encountered Enrico Cuccia, who, through the financial firm Gemina, sought to bring Nuovo Banco into Comit, and thus into the Mediobanca sphere. Even then, a deal took place and Agricole became a shareholder, initially with a small stake which, as was traditional, gradually increased to 30 per cent. The second intervention came ten years later when Bazoli wrested Comit from a Cuccia who was well over ninety years old.

In 2007, what had by then become Banca Intesa merged with Sanpaolo di Torino; to secure the go-ahead, Bazoli sold Cassa di Risparmio di Parma to the French bank, a major shareholder in Intesa with an 18 per cent stake. This marked the beginning of Agricole’s new life in Italy, where it grew thanks to acquisitions all in the wealthiest parts of the country (from Friuli to Romagna, from Valtellina to La Spezia) and its ability to operate across a wide range of financial and banking sectors. The patient capital of the cooperative world is also capital that is spread throughout the country, and is therefore accustomed to engaging directly not only with local needs but also with politics, from the grassroots to the centre. Over these past two years of banking upheavals, with Agricole always waiting patiently yet always ready to grow (it holds almost 30 per cent of BPM), it has not been the target of the Lega’s bizarre xenophobia: Unicredit, an Italian bank regarded as foreign; Agricole, a foreign bank regarded as Italian.

The manoeuvre launched in response to Intesa’s takeover bid for MPS is extremely ambitious and highly complex. Perhaps influenced by Neapolitan idealism, Luigi Lovaglio is not taking the most direct route, as taught by William of Ockham, but the most circuitous one. The new entity is expected to bring together MPS (at the helm), Mediobanca – which operates in a different sector and has a different corporate culture – Banca Generali and, above all, BPM, a major retail bank with a market capitalisation of 25 billion. There is talk of an 80-billion-euro group led by someone whose net worth is less than half that amount. And investors are wondering whether it is realistic to think that debt levels will not rise and that it is truly possible to distribute the announced profits. Meanwhile, there are those who conjure up the spectre of twenty years ago, when MPS, in order not to be left out of the big game, took over Antonveneta without having the resources to do so. History does not repeat itself, but hubris does.