What does Italo’s entry into the German market tell us about Italy’s strengths?

The announcement of Italo’s entry into the German market, with new trains in blue livery, once again confirms the good health of the Italian high-speed rail system. No one is hiding the problems, which are also linked to the major works currently underway on the Italian network and which will continue with particular intensity throughout August. However, the liberalisation model pioneered by Italy remains a model for the rest of Europe: ours was the first high-speed market in which a new operator challenged the incumbent under the open-access regime. Infrastructure works are essential in this second phase of liberalisation, particularly in view of the arrival of a third operator. The Italian model is based on the high frequency of services guaranteed by Trenitalia, with the Frecciarossa, and by Italo, which on certain routes have transformed high-speed rail into a sort of metro service between major cities. This is what passengers are asking for: more frequent services, more choice, and higher quality. And this is what the operators have sought to offer through substantial investment in the renewal and expansion of their fleets. The expansion of the network will also enable services that already serve various parts of the country to reduce journey times.

We are witnessing the greatest period of development since the major construction projects launched in the 1990s. Projects such as the Florence bypass will be decisive; and Milan, too, may eventually require infrastructure capable of separating high-speed traffic from regional and conventional services, as is already the case in Bologna. Liberalisation has led to more services, new investment and a fall in the average ticket price. Similar effects have been seen, albeit at different times and in different ways, in France and Spain too, and may soon become apparent in Germany. Competition arrived in Italy in 2012, and today the number of daily services between Milan and Rome is unrivalled in Europe: more than five times that available between London and Paris, and more than three times that between Berlin and Munich. Europe, albeit slowly and belatedly, is following Italy’s example. Since 2021, competition has also taken hold in Spain and France, and an increasingly competitive and increasingly European high-speed market is taking shape. Now it is Germany’s turn; for many years, it has remained a major market without any real competition in high-speed services, and has been plagued by Deutsche Bahn’s problems with punctuality and reliability. Italo will invest €3.6 billion to launch its service in Germany from 2028. Even before that, Trenitalia has taken its model abroad: to France with Trenitalia France, to Spain with Iryo and, according to the announced plans, on the Paris–London route by 2029. Italian operators are therefore key players in Europe and can aspire to an increasingly important role on a global scale as well. The real question is what might happen in the coming years. Following the arrival of new competitors in France and Italy, and with the opening up of competition on the Paris–London route, we will probably begin to see rail operators that are less and less national and increasingly European in scope, as has been the case in the aviation sector since the early 2000s.

Within fifteen years, merger or consolidation processes between groups of different countries could even begin. It will, however, be a long process, as railways depend on networks, regulations, signalling systems, stations and infrastructure that are still very much national in nature. For this reason, the second phase of liberalisation cannot be limited to the construction of new lines. It will be necessary to ensure that new operators have fair access to train paths, stations, depots and maintenance facilities, preventing network congestion or technical barriers from stifling competition. Italy has been at the forefront of the liberalisation revolution. The advantage it has built up explains why Trenitalia and Italo are now two operators that are competitive at European level. The merit of the Italian model lies not only in having built a good network: it has demonstrated that competition can increase service frequencies, investment and passenger numbers, whilst improving quality and reducing prices. The challenge now is not to squander this advantage.