Italian exports are growing despite Trump’s tariffs: the ICE report

In the first year of Donald Trump’s tariffs, Italian exports of goods grew by 3.3 per cent to €643 billion, outpacing growth in Germany (0.9 per cent) and France (2.3 per cent), whilst Spain recorded a decline of 0.5 per cent. Even sales to the United States rose by 7.2 per cent, driven mainly by the Italian pharmaceutical sector – one of the few sectors to remain largely exempt from tariffs – which in 2025 increased its exports to the country by 54.1 per cent compared with 2024. These figures are confirmed by the 40th edition of the ICE Report on Italy in the International Economy, presented today alongside the ISTAT-ICE Yearbook at an event in the Chamber of Deputies.

In attendance, alongside the Agency’s President Matteo Zoppas, were Ministers Antonio Tajani, Adolfo Urso, Francesco Lollobrigida and Gianmarco Mazzi. “Amidst expressions of thanks and handshakes, the ministers opened the proceedings with their respective speeches. The Foreign Minister said: ‘Zoppas is one of the most collaborative people I know, and today’s agreement confirms that the diversification strategy has paid off.’ For this reason, he added: ‘I believe that 700 billion in exports is an achievable target.’”

Minister Urso also praised the collaboration between the government and the Agency, adding: “Last May – figures confirmed again today by Istat – Italy leapfrogged both Japan and South Korea in one fell swoop, moving into fourth place amongst the world’s leading exporters.” He went on to explain: “Ten years ago we were in eighth place; we then overtook the European countries first – France and the UK – and now the two Asian giants, Japan and South Korea. Ahead of us are the major powers: the United States, China and Germany.” But that is clearly a different ball game. The Minister for Enterprise adds: “We are first in the G20 for the variety of goods exported; we offset slowdowns in Europe with growth in non-EU markets; and we do not depend on a handful of large groups: the top ten companies account for just 10.9 per cent of exports, and for around a thousand products, the country ranks among the top three in the world for trade surplus.” Here too, the strength lies in diversification: “It is this widespread presence that makes our production system more resilient, enabling it to mitigate the effects of instability, adapt rapidly to changes in the global landscape and continue to grow.”

Returning to the report, in addition to the pharmaceutical sector, shipbuilding and the aerospace sector also held up well thanks to zero or low tariffs, whilst the mechanical engineering and agri-food sectors, on the other hand, ended the year down, according to ICE. However, overall, Italian exports of goods rose in 2025. This result was certainly boosted by advance purchases in the early months of 2025 – known as ‘front-loading’ – before the customs barriers came into force.

According to the Report, the effective tariff rate on Italian goods entering the United States rose from 2.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2025 to 11 per cent in the last quarter, averaging 7.6 per cent over the course of 2025. This disparity stems from the sectoral breakdown of sales, as Italy exports more to sectors with higher trade barriers. However, the report notes that, so far, the costs have largely been borne by American importers and consumers, whilst exporting firms still face the risk of weaker foreign demand.

Compared with the United States, the key drivers of 2025 are unlikely to re-emerge. On the one hand, the surge in advance purchases – which last year also bolstered global trade (up 5.1 per cent in volume, exceeding forecasts) – has petered out with the introduction of tariffs, to the extent that the World Trade Organisation forecasts a sharp slowdown in trade in goods for 2026, from 4.6 per cent to 1.9 per cent overall, provided the conflict in the Middle East remains contained. On the other hand, there was the remarkable performance of the pharmaceutical sector; without it, Italian sales in the US would actually have fallen by 1.6 per cent overall.

More than half of Italy’s exports (51.3 per cent) are still destined for the European Union. Among the main export markets is undoubtedly Spain, where purchases from Italy have risen by 10.6 per cent. By contrast, exports to China have fallen by 6.6 per cent.

There is also a resource that Italy appears not to be making the most of, according to the ICE report: companies that have been exporting for years, but below their capacity. In fact, according to the report, if small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are not multinationals were to increase their propensity to export by just two percentage points, the country would earn around 7 billion euros. If, on the other hand, they were to fully align themselves with the standards of the best exporters, the untapped potential would rise to between 40 and 47 billion, concentrated mainly amongst small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises.

“Last year we reached 643 billion in exports, an increase of 3.3 per cent. In the first five months of the year, exports rose by 3.4 per cent, driven mainly by non-EU markets,” Tajani added. For the government, “the target is to reach 700 billion in exports by the end of next year” and “the figures confirm that this is a path that can lead us to achieve this result”, because “we are working with a systemic approach”. In conclusion: “Meanwhile, as regards exports, we are at almost 40 per cent of our country’s gross domestic product, and this despite two wars and despite tariffs. This means there is a strategy.”