Leonzio Rizzo

The analysis

From hidden provisions (NEC and fiscal drag) to the exit tax. The manoeuvre involving hidden taxes

This year, the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) is no longer enough, but the government has found another solution for the Budget Bill: European flexibility regarding defence and energy security expenditure. This has resulted in a minor accounting miracle. If expenditure that was already planned is brought under the exemption, it frees up funds to finance other measures

Marco Leonardi

e Leonzio Rizzo

6 NOV 26

THE ANALYSIS

On wages and inequality: a fresh start through collective bargaining

For thirty years, we have explained Italy’s wage stagnation with a simple argument: wages are not rising because productivity is not rising. This explanation is largely true for the economy as a whole. But when we look at individual sectors, the picture changes. And it becomes more political

Marco Leonardi

e Leonzio Rizzo

20 OCT 26

GDP and inflation

Price rises affect expenditure, but also revenue. How can the fiscal drag be offset?

Compared with the forecasts for the end of 2025, the additional fiscal drag caused by higher inflation amounts to around 3.6 billion: a significant offset, albeit insufficient to cover all the increased expenditure. There are also other revenue streams generated by inflation, starting with VAT. It is peculiar to portray inflation solely as a source of increased expenditure, whilst ignoring the increased revenue

Marco Leonardi

e Leonzio Rizzo

16 OCT 26

Fiscal drag in the budget

Meloni calls for flexibility within the EU regarding inflation, but does not take fiscal drain into account

The 8.3 billion in additional personal income tax revenue over the two-year period 2026–2027 could offset part of the costs of inflation. However, the government has not clarified how it intends to account for this revenue, whilst asking Brussels for greater spending leeway.

Massimo Bordignon

, Marco Leonardi

e Leonzio Rizzo

13 OCT 26

the budget

The forthcoming Budget Bill must address fiscal drag

Tax avoidance remains a problem. For the time being, the government is discussing extending the 33 per cent personal income tax rate, without addressing the root cause of the problem.

Marco Leonardi

e Leonzio Rizzo

30 SEP 26

THE ANALYSIS

Fiscal drag is back. Inflation is returning and hitting the usual suspects

This time, the tax drain amounts to between 2.5 and 5 billion. The risk is that, once again, it will be employees and pensioners who foot the bill, having already been hit by delays in contract renewals and a loss of purchasing power

Marco Leonardi

e Leonzio Rizzo

19 SEP 26

The analysis

A price cap on fuel is better than a tax on windfall profits

Taxing refiners’ profits is a mistake; a cap, as with gas, is preferable. Points to consider

Marco Leonardi

e Leonzio Rizzo

25 AUG 26

THE ANALYSIS

Why the price of diesel isn’t falling in line with the excise duty cut

The price of diesel leaving the refinery is not simply the cost of crude oil plus the industrial costs involved in processing it. Useful points to consider before spending any more public money

Marco Leonardi

e Leonzio Rizzo

15 AUG 26

Total items: 8

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