The war against Iran is dividing Trump supporters, even though all the blame in the world has been heaped on Kyiv.

According to an exclusive report in the Wall Street Journal, US Vice-President J. D. Vance has sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in an attempt to find “sufficient common ground” to avert a new Trump-led order for attacks on Iran. President Donald Trump supports this attempt; according to a source at the newspaper, it was Trump himself who asked his vice-president to reopen the channel. However, as things stand, the only concrete evidence is the letter; everything else is typical of Trump – that is to say, chance and chaos.

The two most significant ongoing conflicts – Russia’s war against Ukraine and the US’s war against Iran – loom large over the mid-term elections, which are now fast approaching on 3 November, but have taken very different forms in the White House’s election rhetoric. Trump has decided to pin the blame on Ukraine for high fuel prices – which are leading to a general rise in prices and widespread instability – as well as for the inability to put an end to the Iranian threat: there are not enough weapons to do so, because they have all been sold off to Kyiv. Neither of these claims is true: it is not Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries that have driven up diesel prices in particular – the evidence is clear: the agreement between the US and Russia dates from 10 October, yet the price of energy resources has not fallen – and it is not supplies to Ukraine that have depleted American arsenals, but rather the inefficient use of interceptors against Iranian attacks on American targets in the Gulf and the botched planning of arms production. Nevertheless, the anti-Ukrainian propaganda campaign has had some impact on the U.S. election, at least judging by the statements made by pro-Trump candidates at their rallies.

However, a significant rift persists within the conservative world over the war in Iran, which not even Trump’s attempt to place the blame solely on Ukraine has managed to heal. A large part of the MAGA world regards the war against Iran as one of the greatest mistakes committed by the Trump administration: the reasons are varied, touching on the rising anti-Semitism within this fringe of the MAGA establishment, which can broadly be traced back to the news presenter Tucker Carlson, who told Trump as early as last year – as recounted in the book "Regime Change" by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan – that if he attacked Iran, his popularity would plummet. Then there is Vance and the faction that wants a lasting peace agreement with Tehran, at any cost: the vice-president has acted as a mediator with the Iranians, effectively putting the war on hold but leaving the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, which is the main reason for the current energy crisis. Then there is a third faction, which wants the war to resume in order – to put it bluntly – to finish the job with Tehran.

As ever, it is unclear which way Trump is leaning; he is likely oscillating between the second and third factions, sending Vance forward to seek a window of opportunity for dialogue with Iran whilst simultaneously fuelling rumours of a possible resumption of military operations immediately after the mid-term elections. Yet the upheaval between the two wars has come to pass: Russia is taking advantage of this unexpected ‘Trumpian free pass’ to torment Ukraine – yesterday it struck a railway station in Dnipro, killing 13 people – whilst offering itself as a mediator between America and Iran, despite having so far helped Tehran to strike American targets.