From the Campidoglio and the Lazio region, here are the aspiring MPs

Virginia Raggi, Giancarlo Righini, Roberta Angelilli, Mario Ciarla, Daniele Leodori and Massimiliano Valeriani. But also a few councillors at the Campidoglio. The list is long, and set to grow. The new electoral law for Parliament has reintroduced, albeit partially, the preferential voting system. It is therefore only natural that those currently sitting on the Regional Council or the Capitoline Assembly, and who have a substantial number of votes behind them, might aspire to make the leap to Montecitorio or Palazzo Madama in one of Lazio’s seven multi-member constituencies (five for the Chamber of Deputies and two for the Senate).

The exact number of seats per constituency will be determined shortly; it is not yet clear from which constituencies across Italy the 70 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and the 35 in the Senate – which will make up the majority bonus – will be taken. Things will change, but not drastically. And so, based on current polls, it is already possible to make some predictions. First and foremost: only the PD and Fratelli d’Italia will have the electoral strength to guarantee the election of candidates from their preference lists, whilst the other parties will elect, at most, one MP per constituency – namely the lead candidate predetermined by their party leaderships. Through the bonus and multiple candidacies, however, it cannot be ruled out that candidates from these parties may also be in contention for a few seats via the preference votes.

This reasoning applies to FdI and the PD, however. Should the centre-right win, FdI will retain its current 20 MPs from Lazio, and the same will apply to the PD’s approximately 10 MPs. If, on the other hand, the ‘broad coalition’ were to win, FdI would end up with fewer MPs than at present, whilst the PD would gain an additional 4–5 seats. Within the PD, the only MPs certain of re-election are Claudio Mancini and Michela Di Biase. To these must be added the PD coordinator (and staunch supporter of Secretary Elly Schlein), Marta Bonafoni, currently a regional councillor. She will likely head the list in one of Rome’s constituencies for the Chamber of Deputies. The others may seek re-election via preferential votes, and here they will have to contend with at least three regional councillors dreaming of making the leap: the former vice-president of the Region, Daniele Leodori (of AreaDem); Massimiliano Valeriani, also a former councillor under Zingaretti; and Mario Ciarla, who is very close to Goffredo Bettini. It is also rumoured that some councillors might wish to make the leap. But complicating the picture here is the possibility of a combined election day. If the vote were held alongside the local elections, it would be impossible to stand in both. In short, the councillors will have to choose: either the Campidoglio or Parliament. This could also apply to one of the potential centre-right mayoral candidates, Roberta Angelilli, currently vice-president of the Region. In the event of a staggered vote (with local elections in the spring and general elections in the autumn), following a potential defeat, she could seek a seat in Parliament, but what if the votes were held simultaneously? It is no coincidence, then, that yesterday FdI let it be known that the final decision on the candidate will be announced in December, during Atreju. Her or Rampelli? Would the Deputy Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies be willing to give up his seat in order to stand as a mayoral candidate? But there is also another FdI record-holder in terms of votes in the regional government: the current Budget Councillor, Giancarlo Richgini, who secured 38,000 first-choice votes in 2023. He certainly has a chance of standing, even if not as the lead candidate.

The situation within the Five Star Movement is also interesting. The main unknown factor concerns the only person currently in the Capitoline Assembly capable of securing preferential votes: the former mayor, Virginia Raggi. Unless there are multiple lead candidates or candidates who are bypassed because they qualify for the majority bonus, however, it is unlikely that Conte’s party will be able to elect anyone through preferential votes. For this reason, the former mayor’s negotiations are, in any case, taking place with Via di Campo Marzio. It is no secret that, when it comes to Roman affairs, Giuseppe Conte prefers to speak with another Capitoline councillor, the group leader in the Giulio Cesare Chamber, Linda Meleo, who received the most votes for the Five Star Movement in the 2021 elections. It is said that she, too, would not be at all averse to making the big leap.