US cuts to counter-terrorism are taking a heavy toll in Syria and Somalia

Donald Trump’s war on Islamic terrorism is also a matter of money, as demonstrated by the emblematic cases of Syria and Somalia. Spending cuts or the decision not to use funds already allocated are calling into question the security situation in Damascus and risk driving the Somali capital, Mogadishu, into the arms of al-Shabaab. The figures for the Syrian front have been laid out by the US Department of Defence in Washington, and they are stark. The US government has asked the Senate to allocate $130 million for 2027 to support the fight against ISIS in Syria. This is the same amount earmarked for 2026, down from the $148 million allocated for 2025. However, the department’s quarterly report, presented to Congress in June, noted that in 2025 only 37 per cent of the funds had been spent, whilst for 2026, despite the $130 million having been approved, no funding has yet been disbursed. Admittedly, the situation on the ground in Syria suggests that Islamic State remains confined to ‘hit-and-run’ attacks and ambushes, that its ranks number only a few thousand, and that the Syrian Armed Forces have so far shown goodwill in the fight against Islamic terrorism. According to Charles Lister, a Syria expert at the Middle East Institute, “for seven consecutive months, ISIS’s operational activity in Syria has been at its lowest level since the group first appeared in the country in 2013. Attacks have fallen by 75 per cent since April 2026, compared with the 15 months following Assad’s fall”. These are positive figures, but they do not entirely convince the US Department of State when viewed over the long term. The issue of funding cuts for the fight against ISIS and zero expenditure for the current year masks a larger problem of a political nature: the vetting process for new partners in the fight against ISIS in Syria remains ‘at a standstill’ and has raised fears of possible infiltration by ISIS members into the new Syrian army. In short, the integration of minorities and foreign fighters into the new armed forces carries with it the risk that extremist factions – those once linked to the Islamic State – may not be prepared to renounce their radical religious ideology.

Whilst in Syria the issue is the transition of power, in Somalia the situation is even more critical. Ugandan military forces have announced their withdrawal from the country, 20 years after being deployed as part of the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission (AUSOM). The impact on the ground is enormous, as we are talking about 4,500 troops deployed as part of the UN and African Union mission (plus a further 2,000 sent under bilateral agreements between Uganda and Somalia). Among the reasons for the withdrawal is the decision by the United States to cut funding to the international mission. The philosophy of the second Trump administration is simple in its brutality: if, in Washington’s view, a partner is not doing enough in the fight against terrorism, then funding is cut off. This is precisely what has happened in the case of Somalia, which only two weeks ago was included in Trump’s highly personal list of ‘shithole countries’ mentioned at an election rally (the others were Libya, Yemen and Haiti). Well, Washington has long been displeased with the management of the Somali government led by Hassan Sheik Mohamud, who has triggered a political crisis with the opposition by attempting (so far unsuccessfully) to extend his presidential term. According to the White House, the damage to the government’s legitimacy plays into the hands of Islamic terrorists who control large swathes of territory in Somalia, having advanced to the very gates of Mogadishu. Thus, in addition to cutting funding to AUSOM, the United States has also dismantled the Baledogle airbase in the south of the country, a stronghold of American counter-terrorism operations. To demonstrate that the abandonment of the base falls within the category of ‘punishments’ imposed by Washington on a government deemed inadequate, the United States has stated its intention to expand its military infrastructure to other areas of Somalia – in Jubaland and Puntland – whose leaders are at odds with President Mohamud. The Americans have no intention of leaving Somalia, but the withdrawal from Baledogle could allow al-Shabaab militants to enter Mogadishu. According to Caleb Weiss, a counter-terrorism expert at the Long War Journal, the Somali military, left to their own devices, would not hold out for long.