Trump is withdrawing from bases in Europe and the Gulf that are under threat from Iran. The plan is to rely on Israel

“Has America pulled out and left the Gulf states to their fate?” The question posed by Egyptian entrepreneur Naguib Sawiris should also include Europe. On 30 September, the United States ended its military presence in Iraq. A week later, Donald Trump withdrew the B-1 bombers from the British RAF base at Fairford due to threats from Iran. Yesterday, following further Iranian threats, the United States evacuated the RAF base at Mildenhall. The tanker aircraft were diverted elsewhere in the early hours of yesterday. 

U.S. personnel have been evacuated from bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, with some of these bases having sustained such severe damage that the Pentagon has no intention of rebuilding them. To date, according to the Wall Street Journal, the damage is estimated at ten billion dollars across 244 military facilities.

Many of the thirteen main military bases in the region, used by US troops, have been rendered unusable; those in Kuwait sustained the most damage. Six U.S. servicemen were killed in an attack on the port of Shuaiba, which destroyed an army operations centre. Iranian drones and missiles struck the Ali Al Salem airbase, damaging aviation facilities and injuring personnel, as well as Camp Buehring, where maintenance and refuelling facilities were damaged.

In Qatar, Iran struck the Al Udeid airbase, the headquarters of US Central Command’s (Centcom) air operations, damaging the early warning radar system. In Bahrain, an Iranian drone struck communications equipment at the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet. At Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, Iranian missiles and drones damaged communications equipment and several in-flight refuelling aircraft.

The closure of bases in the Middle East and the withdrawal from bases in Britain have made the logistics of projecting power extremely complex. American bombers can still reach their targets, but only by taking off from the United States, which entails longer flight times and the need for in-flight refuelling. U.S. naval task forces can still patrol the Arabian Sea, outside the Persian Gulf, but they now have to be refueled from Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, three thousand kilometers away. The USS Lincoln has withdrawn by over a thousand kilometers, having realised that in the era of drone warfare, an aircraft carrier is nothing more than a large floating target.

The world’s most expensive aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, was forced, following a mysterious fire in the laundry, to withdraw for maintenance to Split, on the Dalmatian coast. Iranian attacks have forced American troops to work remotely. Given that the Gulf is home to some of the most luxurious hotels on the planet, it is conceivable that the room service bill for the evacuated American personnel could cost more than the Iranian drone that put their base out of action.

And a major transformation is already evident. At the end of September, US fighter squadrons were deployed to Ovda Air Base in southern Israel, joining the American aircraft already stationed there. Washington has transferred a THAAD missile defence system to Israel. From mid-October, US Air Force C-17s carried out sixteen missions to the Israeli airbase at Ovda, where, in mid-October, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth held a secret meeting. These flights departed from bases at Fort Bliss (Texas), Osan (South Korea), Cannon (New Mexico), Spangdahlem (Germany) and Yuma (Arizona). Israel is on the verge of transitioning from being the United States’ main ally to becoming an integral part of the physical architecture of what will remain of American power in the Middle East.

It was no coincidence that Reagan’s then Secretary of State, Alexander Haig, described the Jewish state as ‘the unsinkable aircraft carrier’.