This is how Israel’s future government will have to adapt to the new America

 Israeli President Isaac Herzog will announce tomorrow to whom he intends to grant the mandate to form a government. The figures emerging from the consultations seem clear and suggest that the Yashar! party, led by former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, holds the majority, having secured the support of all opposition parties – including Arab parties – as well as part of the ultra-Orthodox community. Herzog has, however, reiterated on several occasions that things appear clear ‘at first glance’, suggesting that it may be necessary to be more creative, taking into account that everything around us is changing, starting with Israel’s most important ally – its indispensable ally, the American ally. The elections in Israel and the United States were held a week apart; they are linked, connected and inextricably intertwined. 

The two votes mark two new beginnings, perhaps even a rift that seems hard to imagine. Following the mid-term elections, the Republicans’ defeat in Congress, Vice-President J. D. Vance’s threats regarding the need to review the United States’ relationship with Israel, and even after the victory of Democratic candidates fiercely opposed to the alliance with the Jewish state, Jerusalem acknowledges that the time has come to start working on parallel paths.

The election campaign in Israel was a mix of vitriolic accusations, scant policy proposals and a focus entirely on the figure of the incumbent Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu – a figure to be repudiated, sidelined and brought down, according to the ‘Change’ bloc led by Eisenkot, or to be preserved and protected, according to the majority which, on balance, is now a minority: everyone has lost seats. Netanyahu has frequently emphasised the two-year window needed to carry out the most important operations in the Middle East. These two years mark the end of the Trump administration, pushing the two countries towards a rift that had been anticipated, so much so that the Prime Minister, in one of his final appearances before the Israeli vote, stated that everything is now underway and that Israel is ready to do without the United States. Following Donald Trump’s confirmation of a possible cut in aid to Israel – which came in the wake of the position expressed by Vance – Netanyahu’s office commented: “US military aid to Israel has always been based on a bipartisan agreement. Israel has used it both to defend itself and to counter enemies threatening America and the West. Today, Israel has a strong and stable economy. The shift from aid to partnership, spearheaded by Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump, demonstrates the strength and complexity of our relationship, as well as its ability to adapt and remain steadfast over time.”

It is a necessary, though very painful, split, but the new Israeli government will have to take this into account, not least because of the speed with which it must be formed and the effort it will have to make to avoid an early election. Donald Trump has said that war against the Islamic Republic of Iran is going ahead; everything is ready and in the final stages. The Americans have once again deployed aircraft carriers and fighter jets to the Middle East; the remaining uncertainty centres on Israel’s direct involvement and, above all, on the objectives of the renewed military campaign. Trump continues to speak in his usual vague manner, but Israeli expectations are for a decisive action against the Islamic Republic’s nuclear programme. The Iranians sense that war is drawing near; they are unwilling to negotiate on American terms and have once again staked their hopes on Trump-style chaos, particularly following the outcome of the mid-term elections. In Israel, which will not hold back should Washington ask it to intervene, the coming war is also seen as one of the last moments of total and assured alignment with Washington. After that, a new phase will begin.

Israel has seen how the United States has treated Ukraine; it has seen that, just as Trump accused Kyiv of causing rising fuel prices and inflation, others have levelled the same accusations at Jerusalem. The treatment meted out to Ukraine was distressing to witness; Israel wishes to avoid receiving the same treatment, and according to diplomatic sources consulted by Il Foglio, a future Israeli government’s relationship with Kyiv could also become much more open. This week, following the Russian attack on a school being used as a shelter in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem commented: “We are deeply saddened by the horrific news coming from Komyshuvakha, in Ukraine, where 40 people were killed in a Russian attack (the death toll has since risen, ed.). Among the civilian sites hit was a school serving as a humanitarian aid distribution centre. Many people are still missing. We condemn this attack.”