In the European ‘mini’ format on Kyiv, Italy is (for now) not included. This is not good news

There are certain news stories that risk going unnoticed, yet which deserve to be examined closely. One such story concerns Italy, Ukraine and the way in which Europe is attempting to organise itself in preparation for possible negotiations with Russia. The story is simple: at the table where the future of Ukraine is being discussed sit France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the European Union, the United States and, of course, Ukraine. Italy is not there. And whilst this absence may seem like a minor detail today, tomorrow it could become a huge problem. The reasons for Italy’s absence are not difficult to understand.

Germany has invested considerable sums in military support for Kyiv. France and the United Kingdom, as well as being nuclear powers, have taken a leading role in the coalition of the willing and are prepared to commit militarily to providing security guarantees. Italy, whilst having done a great deal for Ukraine, has chosen a different path; it has ruled out the possibility of sending troops to Ukrainian territory and has allocated fewer resources to supporting Kyiv than other European partners.

Back in 2003, when negotiations with Iran over its nuclear programme began, France, Germany and the United Kingdom established a small-group format, the E3, from which Italy was excluded. That format, created to deal with an emergency, has, however, over time become a permanent diplomatic club. Today we risk witnessing something similar. Negotiating tables, once they start to function, tend to become entrenched. And those who are not present when decisions are made about who should be there often find that getting back in is much harder than getting in the first place.

The Meloni government should reflect on this, without resorting to polemical shortcuts. To carry weight, one must be prepared to offer something in return. And if Italy wishes to play a leading role in European politics, it should focus on one very simple thing: not allowing its allies to become accustomed to the idea that, when important decisions are made, they can easily do without it.