The three fronts now opening up for Israel, which finds itself increasingly isolated following the mid-term elections

On Tuesday, voters in Providence, Rhode Island, approved by an overwhelming majority a referendum calling on the city to divest from Israel, making it the largest city in the United States to adopt such a measure. The initiative secured 75 per cent of the vote, against a backdrop that saw David Morales, a Democratic socialist, elected as mayor. With the mid-term elections, the famous ‘bipartisan American support for Israel’ has evaporated and the Jewish state’s image in America has plummeted.

“The reason we lost is the war against Iran,” Vice-President J.D. Vance, who is known to detest the Jewish state, also said yesterday. Among the causes cited for the Republican defeat are petrol prices and inflation, as well as the war against Iran and Gaza.

And the refrain is now well established: “Petrol prices and inflation have risen because of the war on Iran instigated by Israel, which committed genocide in Gaza”. A Harvard/Harris poll a year ago stated that amongst the 18–24 age group, 60 per cent “prefer Hamas to Israel” and that support for Israel has plummeted even amongst Republican voters. An April poll by the Pew Research Centre found that four in ten Republicans hold an unfavourable view of Israel. Among Republicans aged between 18 and 49, the figure rises to 57 per cent, whilst among those aged 50 and over, one in four expresses a negative view.

The Democrats’ takeover of Congress will now lead to control over arms sales to Jerusalem. A year ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began speaking of the need to make his country independent. On several occasions, including following talks with Donald Trump – who on Monday announced the end of military aid to Jerusalem – Netanyahu has suggested that the country must prepare for a double blow: the end of US military aid and the imposition of sanctions by other states and international organisations. The direct economic consequence of Trump’s decision is that Israel’s annual defence budget will face a cut of $3.8 billion from next year. This comes at a time when the budget has swelled due to the new regional reality brought about by the conflict, the costs of the fighting and the intensive deployment of reserve forces, who are engaged on the front line for an average of one hundred days a year.

The implications of the mid-term elections for Israel will go far beyond the loss of Republican control of Congress. There are three key areas in which the election results could significantly affect Israeli interests: the US President’s policy towards Iran, the new balance of power in Congress and, most importantly, the 2028 presidential election, which is already beginning to take shape against the backdrop of shifts within the Democratic and Republican parties. Two scenarios are emerging regarding Iran. The first is that Trump might now decide to step up diplomatic efforts, accept concessions in the negotiations in Tehran and present an agreement as a diplomatic success that would allow him to withdraw the United States from the conflict. The second scenario envisages an attempt to bring the military campaign to a close with a short but powerful operation, enabling the president to declare (once again) victory, assert that the objectives have been achieved and scale back US involvement in the region. In both cases, Israel’s interests do not align with those of the White House.

The second challenge concerns the composition of Congress. A new wave of Democratic MPs, the majority of whom are hostile to Israel, will join those already on Capitol Hill. In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins was defeated by Democrat Troy Jackson, who was forced to apologise after claiming that Israeli Jews found it difficult to use the term ‘genocide’ because of the Holocaust, whilst Chris Rabb of Philadelphia won a seat by advocating a complete embargo against Israel. The Democrats’ victory in Congress will enable them to hold hearings, launch inquiries and introduce legislative initiatives on Israeli policy, the war in Gaza, US military aid and the broader strategic relationship between the two countries. The message that candidates might take from the mid-term elections is simple: it is possible to adopt strongly anti-Israeli positions and still achieve political success. The hope in Jerusalem, regardless of which party wins, is that ‘bipartisan support for Israel’ will regain some of its vigour on the first Tuesday in November 2028. Otherwise, Netanyahu’s ‘Super Sparta’ risks being remembered as a self-fulfilling prophecy.