Why Trump is going out of his way for Polish President Nawrocki. Beyond the protests

A year ago, the President of Poland, Karol Nawrocki, arrived at his palace on Krakowskie Przedmiescie – the site of the presidential residence in Warsaw – with the stated aim of creating a government crisis that would lead to the downfall of the government led by Donald Tusk. He never made a secret of his intentions; through a series of vetoes – which earned him the nickname ‘Vetomat’ – he blocked every reform proposed by the majority, culminating in last weekend’s institutional clash following the government’s decision to suspend the President of the Constitutional Tribunal, Bogdan Swieczkowski, and his deputy, after the head of state had refused to allow the swearing-in of the eight constitutional judges elected by the Sejm, the lower house of the Polish Parliament, who were due to replace their colleagues about to retire. Last weekend was marked by protests; Nawrocki called for a coup, encouraged attempts at revolt and, following Tusk’s appeal for unity, nevertheless continued to refuse to carry out his duty and ratify the appointments. Warsaw is at a standstill and the president is at the centre of this deadlock; he is doing exactly what he promised to do: sabotaging the government, which may not fall before its time – elections are scheduled for October next year – but Tusk’s attempt to restore the rule of law, which the PiS – the party that backed Nawrocki – had eroded over eight years in government, is fraught with obstacles. Poland is at a standstill, Warsaw is in turmoil, and the country’s instincts and fears are being exploited by the president, who won the election campaign in June last year by playing on his credentials as a man of the people. Nawrocki stood as an independent, which was a shrewd way of distancing himself from the PiS, but this little-known historian from Gdańsk was in fact politically created by Jarosław Kaczyński, the leader of the PiS. Now Nawrocki has shaken the very foundations of the party, and its cornerstones – such as Atlanticism (now converted to Trumpism) and resistance to Russia – have been shaken to the core, losing their shape and substance, to the extent that the president now finds himself at ease with parties far to the right of PiS, which have by now torn to shreds any certainty regarding Poland’s international positioning. 

The country is central and crucial; it is the fifth largest in the European Union in terms of both size and population, has the largest army within the EU and the third largest within NATO, and has seen its GDP grow by an average of 3.6 per cent over the last ten years. It is a story of determination and success that has changed the heart of the EU, and for those pushing for a fragile Europe, Poland is one of the targets to be struck. Since the start of the war against Ukraine, Russia has focused on Poland through both military pressure and targeted disinformation campaigns. Nawrocki has fuelled anti-Ukrainian sentiment, playing on the sentiments of the population who accused refugees from Ukraine of living off the Poles; he then sparked a diplomatic crisis with President Volodymyr Zelensky, cast doubt on military support, and did everything to the Kremlin’s liking. Nawrocki presented himself as a man of the people, a self-made former boy from Gdańsk who rose to the presidency with determination and against all odds. In reality, the president has deep-rooted connections, as well as a link to the White House that makes him Donald Trump’s favourite – to the extent that the American president attempted to break up the governing coalition in Poland to help his ally in Warsaw. During one of the Polish Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz’s most recent visits, Trump approached him to tell him to leave the ruling coalition, as this would make him look more favourably upon in Washington. According to reports in the Polish press, it was Nawrocki who suggested the possibility of the minister leaving the government. Kosiniak-Kamysz remains in his post, but Trump’s role continues to constitute a major interference in a country for which American support is crucial. In Polish politics, Trump’s White House is constantly stepping in and out, offering endorsements, passing judgement and sabotaging. Every internal upheaval and clash has external observers – at least two – who are extremely keenly interested.