Trump bombs Iran, but “we’ve won”. And no more aid to Israel

The strategic importance of Qeshm Island was already recognised in 1621, when the Portuguese built a fortress there and, the following year, a joint Persian and English force drove them out, marking the end of Lisbon’s control over the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, the United States struck the Iranian island of Qeshm. The offensive comes after Donald Trump played down the prospect of a resumption of the conflict. “We had a war with Iran and we won,” Trump said from the White House, before adding: “We may have to strike Fordo (the site of Iran’s main and most heavily guarded underground uranium enrichment facility), and that’s not a problem.”

Trump also announced that the United States would cut off military aid to Israel by the end of the year, perhaps sooner. “We will no longer pay anything to Israel,” he told Fox News on the day of the mid-term elections. The scrapping of direct military aid to Jerusalem had been under discussion for months, and the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, had publicly stated that his country would have to become self-reliant (“a Super Sparta”, as he described Israel). Trump’s move is pure political calculation: ending the aid would deprive the left wing of the Democrats and the Tucker Carlsons of the Republicans of their talking points.

The $38 billion aid package, negotiated under the Obama administration, is due to expire in 2028, and the renewal of military assistance would prompt the Democrats to debate the issue and the Republicans to grapple with the political cost of funding Israel. Some are calling it ‘Trump’s drôle de guerre’ – the ‘phoney war’, as the stalemate of winter 1939 was known in France. The new strikes are reportedly aimed at preventing Iran from attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Qeshm, at the mouth of the Strait, is the point where any reopening of the Strait will be put to the test, whilst the US Navy has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports since July. 

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal has revealed the damage caused by the Iranians to US bases in the Middle East: 274 structures destroyed across twenty-four bases with a US military presence. The damage is estimated at over fifteen billion dollars. According to Israeli intelligence analysis, Tehran still has 1,700 missile warheads capable of striking the Jewish state. On 27 October, the Wall Street Journal reported that a Patriot battery was being moved from Texas to Israel. However, it is Al Udeid airbase, in the Doha desert, that serves as the barometer of the conflict.

It is home to the Combined Air Operations Centre, which manages every allied sortie in the region. When there is movement there, something is about to happen elsewhere. American tanker aircraft left Al Udeid on 27 February, one day before the start of the war against the Islamic Republic, and did not return until June. On Monday, they had still not moved. Meanwhile, yesterday a billboard stood out in Enghelab Square in Tehran. It depicts the American president alongside the words: ‘We will kill Trump’.