Tarcísio de Freitas, Governor of São Paulo, is not at all upset by Bolsonaro’s escape

Not everyone on the Brazilian right is lamenting Flávio Bolsonaro’s departure. The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, for example, is not at all sorry to see him go. A conservative technocrat, far removed from the ‘Bible and bullets’ right-wing of the Bolsonaro clan and boasting a huge reservoir of support (14,148,348 votes) in the wealthy state of São Paulo, he has everything to gain from the wide-open space on the right created by the defeated candidate’s move to Miami.

For Tarcísio de Freitas, a 55-year-old engineer who graduated from the Agulhas Negras Military Academy, who joined the Republicans in 2022 after previously standing as an independent, the build-up to his candidacy for the 2030 presidential election is now beginning. It was him who had expected Lula da Silva to be his opponent in the campaign that has just ended. He was the one they feared, because he is capable and popular with the middle classes, not just in São Paulo. They feared him far more than Flávio Bolsonaro, whose electoral clout the Workers’ Party had underestimated.

Having lost the internal race to stand for the presidency, Tarcísio sought re-election in São Paulo. He secured victory in the first round on 4 October with 62.85 per cent of the vote – a triumph in the richest state in the whole of Latin America, a part of Brazil that single-handedly generates more wealth than the whole of Argentina. On Tuesday, following Lula’s victory in the presidential election, the governor addressed the nation in a video in which he called for the immediate reorganisation of the right.

Without mentioning Flávio’s defection, he politely and rather half-heartedly thanked him for the election campaign, saying: ‘Now, however, the election is over, the president has been elected, let us unite the opposition forces.’

The bold gamble is to transform the nearly 60 million votes cast against Lula into a political force capable of challenging Lula’s fourth term. The Bolsonaro clan will fight him in the battle for internal leadership by deploying Michelle Bolsonaro, the former first lady, who was elected senator for the Federal District.

Within the Liberal Party—which has never had a shred of liberalism about it and is the Bolsonaro party—members feel as though they are in a blender. Until Tuesday, following the crushing defeat, they were working to make Flávio the leader of the opposition. The idea was to launch forceful initiatives immediately in Congress, where they can count on an overwhelming majority in the Senate, without giving Lula time to come to the defence of his own. The call for the impeachment of Judge Alexandre de Moraes, who secured the conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro, was the first move. It was Flávio himself who had announced on Monday, whilst preparing to flee, that he would bring together the elected parliamentarians to organise action against the government, whose legitimacy he contested. “To withstand the chaos, I will organise the opposition. ‘This was a victory you have given to Brazil. I will bring together the elected deputies and senators to organise our strategy and make the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate our stronghold,’ he had said. Seeing him, 48 hours later, step down the aircraft stairs in Florida infuriated, above all, those among his allies who are building bridges within Congress.

The first to fear that he will personally pay the price for the defection is Rogério Marinho, also a member of Bolsonaro’s party, who politically coordinated the presidential campaign and intends to stand for the presidency of the Senate in 2027. His credibility has plummeted and building support for Marinho’s candidacy is proving to be an uphill struggle.

The PL, according to the right, will become increasingly isolated, and this makes negotiations with other political forces difficult, particularly with the Centrão parties, which will be decisive in choosing the next President of the Senate. The prevailing view is that the exodus – whatever support Donald Trump may be prepared to give to the Bolsonarist right-wing faction based in Miami – with Eduardo Bolsonaro having arranged for his brother to be met in Florida by Alexandre Ramages, the ‘turbo-consultant’, and journalist Paulo Figueiredo, who were already on hand with a document ready to be released – effectively undermines a leadership with a national profile that could help rally support around Marinho. Marinho is therefore looking for a Plan B to win votes for himself.

Tarcísio appears unconcerned by all this; he plays the part of the man with his sights set high, already thinking about how to nit-pick every move of Lula’s fourth term. Meanwhile, he immediately distanced himself from the propaganda and instantly acknowledged the victory of the veteran trade unionist. He alluded to unspecified electoral ‘excesses’. But as early as the Monday after the vote, whilst the remnants of the PT’s night-time celebrations still lay on Avenida Paulista, he pressed the right wing to ensure no one joined the call to annul the vote. Anti-Lula sentiment begins anew with him.