Israel heads to the polls after 7 October: Netanyahu’s future hangs in the balance against Eisenkot

Israel is heading to the polls today for the first time since the massacre of 7 October 2023. Matteo Matzuzzi discussed this with Giulio Meotti and Micol Flammini, the correspondent in Israel, in the second episode of Il Foglio’s ‘On Air Ottobre’ programme. 

Benjamin Netanyahu is aiming for re-election with a coalition comprising his party, Likud, the ultra-Orthodox parties and the far right. He is being challenged by former Chief of the General Staff Gadi Eisenkot, leader of Yashar, around whom an opposition has coalesced ranging from Naftali Bennett’s centre-right to Yair Golan’s left-wing Democrats. 

7 October dominated the election campaign. Netanyahu was in government when Hamas attacked southern Israel, killing around 1,200 people and kidnapping a further 251. His opponents accuse him of failing to take full political responsibility for the failure that allowed the massacre to take place. The Prime Minister also led the military response and takes credit for the results of the operations against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, through which, according to his supporters, Israel has regained its deterrent capability. Eisenkot, who lost a son and two grandchildren in the war in Gaza, is calling for a state commission of inquiry to be set up to investigate the responsibilities surrounding 7 October, a move which Netanyahu has opposed.

On 7 October, a debate also began regarding the army’s responsibilities, as it arrived late in several communities attacked by Hamas. In Nir Oz, one of the kibbutzim that came under attack, residents were left without help for hours and, according to an investigation by the armed forces themselves, the first security units entered the community only after the attackers had already left. The delay has undermined the trust of some residents in the army, an institution to which many Israeli families are bound through military service and reservist call-ups.

In the days following the massacre, the need to remain united had led Eisenkot and Benny Gantz to join the emergency government led by Netanyahu. As the war dragged on, divisions widened once more and the two left the government. Whoever wins will have to face the consequences of the conflict, starting with the reconstruction of the affected communities and the economic difficulties. Issues that were already dividing the country before 7 October also remain unresolved, such as the judicial reform against which hundreds of thousands of people had protested in 2023. On the security front, fears remain of a new confrontation with Iran and other threats from Lebanon.

It remains to be seen whether the election will produce a majority. The latest polls do not give either side the certainty of securing the 61 out of 120 seats needed for an absolute majority in the Knesset. The opposition may need external support from Arab parties – which Eisenkot has said he does not wish to seek – or an agreement with the ultra-Orthodox. In that case, the main stumbling block would be conscription, as the religious parties defend exemptions for many young people engaged in their studies, whilst the former general wants to extend compulsory service. If no one manages to form a government, Netanyahu would remain in office to handle day-to-day affairs and Israel could face another election.

Netanyahu has received the explicit support of Donald Trump, who has called on Israelis to re-elect him. However, it remains unclear to what extent the US president’s intervention might influence the result. In a Channel 12 poll, 64 per cent of those surveyed said they would not change their voting choice.

Whilst there is debate over how much influence Arab parties may have in the formation of the next government, the prospect of a Palestinian state has remained on the sidelines of the campaign. Netanyahu rejects the two-state solution, and Eisenkot has spoken of possible autonomy or a state with limited sovereignty, under Israeli security control. Golan continues to regard a demilitarised Palestinian state as a future possibility, whilst maintaining that now is not the time to discuss it. Since 7 October, one of the reasons for the difficulty in reopening the debate has been a lack of confidence in the possibility of finding a Palestinian counterpart with whom to resume negotiations.