What are the US interests in the negotiations with Moscow? Interview

The Trump administration’s praise for Moscow and pressure on Kyiv are raising doubts about its intentions. Is this a form of flattery designed to push Russian President Vladimir Putin towards peace, or a change of course in foreign policy? Trump has described Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a "dictator" and called for his replacement, whilst his special envoy Steve Witkoff has described Putin as a "humanitarian". The statements have sparked outrage amongst Democrats and within a section of Trump’s own Republican Party. Anton Troianovski, a correspondent for The New York Times and former head of its Moscow bureau, has revealed in several investigations the behind-the-scenes dealings regarding Ukraine’s future. According to him, Putin wants to re-establish relations with Washington without ending the invasion. “For Putin, one of the main strategies, right from the start of this Trump administration, has been to try to separate the Ukrainian issue from talks on bilateral relations between the United States and Russia,” Troianovski told Il Foglio. “For a long time, for example, Trump kept repeating: ‘We will not do business with Russia until the war in Ukraine is over’.”

Energy is now at the heart of the negotiations. Russia has announced that the first shipment of diesel destined for the United States under the agreement set off on 22 October. Washington and Moscow are also discussing the sale of the foreign assets of Lukoil, the oil giant hit by sanctions. “By all appearances, as far as we know, this was an easing of sanctions without Russia making any concessions in return,” says Troianovski. Trump also has his domestic audience in mind. His approval rating has fallen to 31 per cent in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, and the Republicans are highly likely to lose the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections on 3 November, whilst control of the Senate remains uncertain. The diesel deal gives him something to present as action on fuel prices. "By lifting sanctions on Russian diesel, he can tell American voters that he is working hard to bring prices down," explains Troianovski.

“So far, we haven’t seen any impact at the pump: prices remain very high… As for the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine – which was, of course, the original aim of these diplomatic efforts – unfortunately we have seen little progress.” How did we go from negotiations to end the war to talks on buying Russian diesel and lifting sanctions? Initially, Trump had offered business deals with America as an incentive to push Moscow towards peace. Now, says Troianovski, those negotiations are continuing whilst the war rages on. “For Putin, the priority has always been to be seen as a equal, face to face, with the American president,” Troianovski emphasises. “It matters enormously to negotiate directly with the United States, both with Trump and with people he knows to be very close to him, such as Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.” The Russian economic envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, heads the country’s sovereign wealth fund and is leading talks on trade agreements, including Lukoil’s international assets. “There are many parties aiming to join a consortium in pole position to acquire those assets, including some Middle Eastern players with business ties to Witkoff and Kushner,” says Troianovski.

“The Administration, of course, maintains that Witkoff and Kushner are solely pursuing American interests in these negotiations.” The discussions could also extend to the return of larger quantities of Russian gas to Europe, reversing the efforts to reduce dependence on Moscow that began after the invasion. “We know that the American side has raised this idea in talks with Ukraine and with European officials,” he says. "And it is something to which Europe, and certainly Germany, has strongly opposed." Meanwhile, Washington is pressuring Kyiv to cease attacks on Russian refineries, and restrictions on Starlink along with alleged difficulties in accessing U.S. intelligence are jeopardizing Ukraine's ability to defend itself.

Meanwhile, Russia has secured a partial easing of sanctions and continues to engage with Washington on possible forms of cooperation, a development that few could have foreseen.