The Tehran regime is running on empty

Whilst the maritime monitoring firm Kpler reports that oil flows in the Middle East, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes in the region, averaged over 24 million barrels a day in the week ending 18 October, exceeding pre-war levels of 23.3 million, reports are emerging from Iran of an increasingly worrying shortage of oil stocks on the vessels used to circumvent international sanctions – the ‘shadow fleet’.

In recent months, the regime in Tehran has managed to continue selling oil to China because millions of barrels had already left the country on board oil tankers and were in Asia, but now even that reserve has run out and Tehran risks soon running dry, facing a serious economic crisis. On Thursday, the commander of US Central Command, Brad Cooper, stated that in 100 days the US naval blockade had prevented Iran from exporting crude oil worth at least $25 billion; oil revenues are dwindling, and attempts to freeze Iranian funds held in cryptocurrencies are also putting pressure on alternative channels for transferring money.

In recent weeks, several videos have circulated showing extremely long queues at petrol stations in various Iranian cities; some motorists have filmed themselves sleeping in their cars at service stations whilst waiting to refuel the following morning. In early October, Iran’s Oil Minister, Mohsen Paknejad, resigned in the midst of the war and the naval blockade, warning of the possibility of natural gas shortages in some Iranian provinces during the winter. Now, a ministry official has reported a daily petrol shortfall of 10 million litres, and a new directive issued on Thursday requires executive bodies to allow staff whose duties can be carried out remotely to work from home for at least two days a week, in order to save fuel.