The final stage of the election campaign in Serbia

“We offer you a simple choice: choose between Serbia and the mafia!”; “We will not forget that our opponents have tried to overthrow the state”. It is the evening of 22 October, the final day of campaigning for the parliamentary elections before the election silence period begins. The first statement is made in Slavija Square in the old town south of the Danube, where the students’ list has gathered. The second was delivered at the Belgrade Arena, north of the Danube and Sava rivers, by Aleksandar Vučić, the outgoing president and prime ministerial candidate for the SNS (Serbian Reformist Party) list. But it is not just the rivers that separate the SNS and the students: at the polls, two diametrically opposed visions of Serbia are pitted against one another, in a society more divided than ever before.

“Slavija is particularly dear to us. This is where we held our first protest, this is where we first declared the government to be illegitimate, and this is where we shall triumph!” The students’ rally begins with a striking announcement. Formed in the wake of the collapse of the Novi Sad station canopy, which killed 16 people, the group has had a turbulent history marked by many changes: they now have a list of more than 250 people, including academics, trade unionists and former NGO representatives. They do not have an official candidate for prime minister, although the ‘applause meter’ would seem to point to Ilija Srdanović, 56, a professor of cardiology in Novi Sad. However, they remain determined not to dwell on names and to focus instead on a vision for the future.

The programme consists primarily of anti-corruption measures and steps to restore the rule of law: on the one hand, the creation of a judiciary independent of state power and regulatory bodies in the media sector to break SNS’s monopoly over the Serbian media; on the other, a more transparent public procurement system, a clean-up of the state bureaucracy and the police force (where recruitment is usually linked to party loyalty), and the abolition of certain monopolies. It also includes a special anti-corruption prosecutor’s office (which does not exist in Serbia), funding for start-ups and for the healthcare sector, which is in difficulty.

Some analysts even speculate that a ‘constituent’ legislature could be formed should the students win, with a return to the polls as soon as the rule of law is restored.

On the other side of the river, a different setting and a different atmosphere. While Vučić’s image is severely tarnished in the eyes of part of the country, he can count on the support of the majority of pensioners and civil servants. These are people who are caught up in the cult of personality surrounding Slobodan Milošević’s former Minister of Information, and who see him as the only man capable of guiding them through a world that is inherently hostile towards Serbia.

Vučić announces a minimum wage of €1,500, pensions of €800, a leaner government and investment in healthcare. The most sinister promise repeated from the podium is that “We will never again allow politics to enter schools and universities. We want teachers who teach’. The programme appears to pave the way for a series of redundancies in the Serbian academic world. He also promised journalists that, ‘very soon, those who have slandered me will find themselves behind bars. All they know how to do is lie and hate’.

The high level of polarisation, combined with a long history of vote-rigging by the SNS, means it is impossible to predict a winner in advance in this contest. Various polls show one side or the other in the lead, often contradicting one another. Ipsos puts Vučić’s coalition, United Serbia, ahead at 47 per cent against 40 per cent for the students; Nacija TV forecasts a 42–42.9 per cent split in favour of Vučić; finally, the NSPM institute puts the students ahead by around two points, 44.4 per cent to 42.7 per cent.

Judging by the crowds, there would be no contest: on Thursday too, the student list’s rally drew 150,000 people, compared with the roughly 10,000 present at the Belgrade arena. But the crowds are not everything, and the capital is particularly hostile towards Vučić.

In recent weeks, the vote has become even more polarised: on the left, support is shifting towards the SNS or the students. A decisive voting bloc. This is also why, amidst the dancing and promises, there have been a couple of more markedly nationalist speeches on stage. And Vučić has repeatedly accused the students of being directly manipulated by Kosovo. The difference, if one is to be identified, is that the students are waging a more markedly nationalist, ‘Serbia-oriented’ campaign, whilst Vučić claims influence not only over Kosovo but also over the Serb-majority parts of Bosnia.