Tajani squeezes in at the last minute in Istanbul, but Erdogan calls the shots on Libya

 Yesterday, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani flew to Istanbul, where he managed to secure a last-minute place at a meeting organised by the Turks and Germans to discuss major international crises – from Ukraine to the Strait of Hormuz via Gaza. The Turkish Foreign Ministry’s website did not mention Italy amongst the participants, and even Reuters referred to the involvement of the E3 group – which comprises only France, Germany and the United Kingdom – alongside the R4 group, comprising Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. In the end, the Italian Foreign Ministry had an extra chair added, and Tajani attended the meeting.

Counterbalancing the Italian “vengo non vengo” stance is the diplomatic prominence of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his minister Fidan, fresh from their political victory following the ratification of the memorandum on maritime borders with Libya last Tuesday. At the time of going to press, there is still no confirmation of a meeting in Turkey between Saddam Haftar, deputy commander-in-chief of the eastern forces, and Abd Alsalam al Zoubi, Tripoli’s deputy defence minister. Sources at Il Foglio confirm the rumour reported by the Libyan news agency Fawasel regarding an imminent summit to be held on Friday, attended by Erdogan himself, to give his blessing to an agreement to unite the eastern and western armed forces, with headquarters in Sirte and with the assistance and training of the Turkish military. “Perhaps October will once again bring to our homeland the start of a phase that will turn the page on the chapters of division, open the doors to consensus and restore hope for a transition towards a future in which the national will is unified and efforts converge towards a single, secure and stable Libya,” Saddam said yesterday on X.

“Turkey’s aim is to take charge of the country’s unification project to show the Americans that any peace plan between eastern and western Libya must go through them,” a Libyan source explains to Il Foglio. “But Turkey’s efforts to persuade Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba to reach an agreement with Haftar are proving very difficult. ‘Dabaiba does not trust him,’ explains Karim Mezran, director of the North Africa Initiative at the US think tank the Atlantic Council. Indeed, Dabaiba is said to have decided to decline the invitation extended by the head of Turkish intelligence, Ibrahim Kalin, who had met the Libyan Prime Minister in Tripoli four days ago, delegating Zoubi to meet Haftar instead. Yesterday, Mohamed al Menfi, president of the Presidential Council and, on paper, head of the Western Armed Forces, issued a statement warning Zoubi against signing any unification agreement without first consulting Tripoli. And Dabaiba, speaking to community leaders in Zawya, in western Libya, gave assurances that he has no intention of signing any agreement.

Meanwhile, the Americans are remaining silent on the memorandum on maritime borders signed between Libya and Turkey – despite growing anger amongst their European and Israeli allies – but are keeping a close eye on what matters most to the Trump Administration: the country’s economic stability. On Thursday, the eastern parliament unexpectedly approved the resignation submitted by the governor of the Libyan Central Bank, Naji Issa, back in August. At the time, it had not been accepted, but as soon as Issa, six days ago, released figures showing that a large proportion of the oil revenues collected by the National Oil Company had not been paid into the Central Bank’s coffers and had gone missing, he was ousted. The US State Department said it was “dismayed”, because in Washington’s plans, the unification of Libya was to be economic first and foremost, rather than military or political.

Amid one failed negotiation after another, Italy remains silent, and even yesterday, not a single message regarding Libya was issued from Turkey. “Italian diplomacy made a mistake when it had the opportunity to support Tripoli and to include Haftar on an equal footing,” says Mezran. “Instead, it decided not to take its place at the negotiating table, and now confusion reigns.”