Trump chooses Netanyahu with Iran in mind. Israel’s anticipation

Migdal Tefen (Upper Galilee), by our correspondent. US President Donald Trump has chosen whom to back in the Israeli elections and, before doing so, made sure not to repeat the mistake he made in the past: expressing his support for a candidate who was a lost cause. Benjamin Netanyahu is far from a lost cause; the Prime Minister is running a campaign as if there were no alternative to him, as if, whatever happens, he will still be at the heart of any future government, ready to act, reverse decisions and make choices. He has even refused to take part in debates with other party leaders – occasions on which he has always excelled. He has preferred to continue acting as prime minister rather than as a candidate, almost as if the election on 27 October were nothing more than a moment of continuity, a handover from himself to himself, and it matters little who surrounds him. Trump is no longer so quick to give his endorsement; he knows that the label of ‘loser’ is contagious, and he has already found himself in Hungary going out of his way for someone – Viktor Orbán – who was known to be doomed to defeat. He did not want to repeat the same mistake; in Israel, he looked around for someone who could replace ‘Bibi’, as he affectionately calls the Israeli Prime Minister, and perhaps he would not even have minded a change – a different face to present, particularly in relations with the Arab world. Bibi remains in the running amid a field of candidates already all too familiar to the Israeli public, and Trump—having reviewed the polls, which do not predict a dramatic collapse in the Prime Minister’s support—has chosen to give him his full backing in the name of the war they have started and plan to see through together. Anyone, from Gadi Eisenkot to Yair Golan, from Naftali Bennett to Avigdor Lieberman, would not shy away from a resumption of the conflict against the Islamic Republic of Iran, but Netanyahu represents continuity and Trump is not taking any risks. A rift between the two has been predicted time and again, but the White House chief still needs a reliable ally in Jerusalem and knows that the Prime Minister wants to see the end of the Iranian regime; he knows the Prime Minister would do anything to achieve this. The other candidates remain to be seen, and above all, Israeli politics is dominated by a risk that has now become the norm: anyone who has attempted to challenge Netanyahu has subsequently been crushed by the Prime Minister. For Trump, it is better to back the crusher, not the crushed.

The war against Tehran is on the horizon; whilst the election campaign is underway and people are deciding who to vote for, in Israel, people are thinking about what the situation will be like under the next wave of missiles, and one of the places where this awareness is strongest is in the north of the country, on the border with Lebanon, where, more than anywhere else, citizens spent weeks in March hidden in shelters, waiting for Hezbollah’s ability to launch rockets and drones to diminish. Hezbollah is the Iranian-funded Shia militia group. To combat it, the Israeli army entered Lebanon and pushed it further away from the border – a position where, under UN Resolution 1701, it should not even have been present. There is now a ‘yellow line’ within Lebanese territory; it is not physically marked, but is a line on the map. North of the yellow line, Hezbollah is rebuilding its forces, manufacturing its drones and receiving the components needed to assemble rockets, which are arriving mainly from Syria and sent by the Iranian regime. 

The lull in the fighting is set to last only a short while longer; citizens can feel it in their bones. It is a realisation which, like so many things in Israel, has been put on hold until after the vote on 27 October, seven days from now. “It could happen even sooner,” says Sarit Zehavi, a reserve lieutenant-colonel and founder of the Alma Centre, which monitors the northern border. “Before the war, you could even take photos of them,” she says, referring to the Hezbollah militants. “You’d go to the border; they’d see me, and I’d see them,” she says, showing the photos in which the militants can be seen looking towards her, just a stone’s throw from Israel. “Now they’re further away, but they’re continuing to rebuild their arsenal very quickly. The situation has improved partly because, after the last war, Israel refused to withdraw.” The IDF remains in position and, under the agreement reached with the Lebanese government and brokered by the Americans, has begun withdrawing from a pilot zone. “It went badly; we withdrew and Lebanon failed to fulfil its duty to prevent Hezbollah’s return. Now our army refuses to withdraw from other areas; it wants to see results first.” Zehavi is not pessimistic; he believes that talking to the Lebanese government is still important, even if Beirut is doing too little to stop Hezbollah. “Last week, the Lebanese security forces stopped a lorry carrying 780 kilograms of explosives; Hezbollah admitted to and claimed ownership of the cargo, saying it was intended for use against Israel. Under the terms of the agreements, Beirut should arrest Hezbollah’s leaders, but this is not happening. ‘When will that happen?’ wonders Zehavi, convinced that it will be very difficult for Lebanon to avoid civil war – a terrible but inevitable path to eliminating Hezbollah. At the Alma Centre, it is not ruled out that this time Iran and its allies might decide to act first, striking without waiting for the American and Israeli attack, ‘and they might do so before our vote; preventing us from voting could be one of their objectives’. Israel is awaiting the elections; it seems the country is holding its breath. Everything has been postponed until afterwards; freezing this state of limbo, disrupting plans and cancelling a long-planned event could well be in Tehran’s interests.

From Israel’s northern border, the distance to Lebanon is a matter of a few metres; one need only cross the mountains and hills, down a single slope. War is within reach, ever-present; every community has survived the depopulation since 2023, when Hezbollah joined Hamas’s war. Every citizen is a line of defence; during the months when the north was depopulated, Hezbollah saw its plan for a more fragile, retreating Israel come to fruition. Today, however, many Israelis from the north have returned to their homes, and towns such as Shlomi have even seen their population increase: “It all depends on how the mayors have used government funds.” Domestic tourism has started to pick up again, but here they are counting down the days: “Hezbollah won’t let Iran down; we know what we’re up against,” says Zehavi. The shelters are being cleaned out; preparations are underway. War is part of the election; what Israelis know – unlike Trump – is that the conflict against the Tehran regime isn’t just ‘Bibi’s’ thing; it unites everyone. What they do not know is whether this time the American president has set himself any objectives or intends to proceed with the ‘Ukraine approach’: after the resumption of the conflict and a high-profile action, to start talking again about good relations with Iran, the regime’s reasonableness and business opportunities.