The green light for the agreement between Libya and Turkey on maritime borders is a victory for Haftar

After seven years of disputes, threats and controversy, yesterday the Libyan Parliament in Tobruk unanimously ratified the memorandum signed in 2019 that demarcates the maritime borders between Libya and Turkey. For Saddam Haftar, this is a crucial step that paves the way for what could soon see him arrive in Tripoli, welcomed as president of a unified Libya. At least, that is the hope of the deputy commander-in-chief in Benghazi, who, in exchange for ratifying the maritime agreement, can now also count on Ankara’s blessing as Libya’s new president-designate. 

The memorandum on maritime borders had been one of the main points of contention in Libya. Initialled by the west and blocked by the east – where Parliament is based – the agreement was contested by Egypt, Greece, Cyprus and the EU because it gave Turkey and Libya the freedom to manage energy exploitation of the seabed across a vast stretch of sea, encompassing Crete and Cyprus as well. Parliament had blocked the entire process due to the deep animosity that Haftar – supported at the time by the Speaker of the House, Aguila Saleh – harboured towards Turkey.

Times have changed today because the Turks are engaging with everyone, both in the East and the West. Contracts for the construction of major infrastructure projects – for example, large sections of the ‘Highway of Peace’, which were originally intended for the Italians – and the training of Haftar’s soldiers are increasingly being awarded to the Turks. The American plan for the country’s unification, promoted by the White House’s special envoy Massad Boulos, envisages an agreement that overcomes the old divisions and is based on the consensus of all the key players, foremost among them the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. Haftar has seized the opportunity. In early October, he removed Saleh from the leadership of Parliament, neutralising the final political obstacle to the approval of the memorandum, and replaced him with Al Salheen Abdel Nabi, one of his own men. There is a great deal of money at stake for Ankara in the offshore sector. In June 2025, the Libyan national oil company NOC and the Turkish firm TPAO had signed a memorandum concerning the exploration of four offshore areas. Seismic surveys covering 10,000 linear kilometres had also been discussed. Now, Parliament’s green light paves the way for these projects to go ahead.

For his part, Haftar has secured a huge geopolitical victory, demonstrating that the old power dynamics have been overturned and that he is a leader capable of engaging with all sides. He is a partner of Russia, but also of the United States – he met Marco Rubio last June and Vladimir Putin in August. He engages in dialogue with Turkey, but also with Europe, with whom he has long been a partner on immigration and security issues. Saddam Haftar is the living embodiment of the tacit alignment that has taken shape along the Washington–Moscow axis under the second Trump administration. An axis also backed by Italy, which supports every American effort towards the unification of the country with Haftar as president.

However, the uncertainties surrounding Libya’s future are far from over. It remains to be seen how the western Prime Minister, Abdulhamid Dabaiba – to date the only one recognised by the international community – will react. His clan is divided internally between his nephew Ibrahim, who favours an agreement with Haftar in exchange for a leading role in the new US-backed structure, and his son Mohamed, who, on the other hand, feels his economic interests are under threat. Yesterday, coinciding with the vote in Tobruk, Ankara’s intelligence chief, İbrahim Kalin, flew to Tripoli for bilateral talks with Dabaiba to discuss the next steps. Then there is Egypt, which disputes the validity of the memorandum between Libya and Turkey and has been sidelined following the removal of Saleh, who was its standard-bearer in Tobruk. Above all, there are Greece and Cyprus – and with them, the EU. For over a year, Athens had been attempting to mend relations with Haftar to ensure that the agreement with the Turks fell through. Now, the dispute over the exploitation of energy resources, coupled with the threat of a resurgence in migration flows towards Crete, risks keeping Greece and Europe in check.

Finally, from afar, Israel too is watching the latest developments with interest. For Benjamin Netanyahu, containing Ankara’s sphere of influence begins in Syria but extends as far as the coast of Benghazi. The secret meeting between Saddam and Bibi, which took place last month in the United Arab Emirates, served to reaffirm that Israel is keeping a close eye on the eastern Mediterranean. The overtures between Haftar and the Jewish state continue. An international summit on security and intelligence has been taking place in Sirte since yesterday. Among the guests is the Israeli rabbi David Rosen, a leading figure in international interfaith dialogue and former director of the American Jewish Committee.