The heated debate between Bolsonaro and Lula, which is gaining momentum

“The prisoners are voting for you!” “Then your father will vote for me too!” This was one of the sharpest exchanges between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula during the televised debate that finally took place a week before the runoff in Brazil, after the president had refused to participate in the first-round campaign. “A street brawl,” as most of the Brazilian press described it.

The first clash occurred when Lula asked Flávio if he had anything against women. The senator replied that he was married and had “two beautiful daughters”, before moving on to the scandal involving Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as “Lulinha”, the president’s eldest son, who is under investigation for alleged influence peddling. Lula retorted that the case was in the hands of the police and that he did not protect his son “the way you were protected by your father”. Flávio persisted, going so far as to mention Lula’s arrest during Operation Lava Jato. The president then asked for an explanation regarding the more than 130 million reais requested from the banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance the film about his father, entitled “Dark Horse”. “Do you see how many people have been convicted of corruption and money laundering? Only you,” replied Flávio. When the senator claimed that prisoners vote for the Workers’ Party candidate, Lula retorted that Jair Bolsonaro should therefore also vote for him. “Lying is the Bolsonaro family’s forte,” “Your nose is growing, Lula. Watch out,” was another exchange.

Responding first to questions on security, Flávio outlined his programme for the start of a potential government: “I will reclaim every square metre, every street, every neighbourhood, every city and every territory that has been taken from the Brazilian people” by criminal organisations. Lula responded by criticising him for not having voted in favour of the constitutional reform on public security that he had presented to Congress in March last year, and by promising to establish a Ministry of Public Security to coordinate the federal government’s actions with regional and municipal authorities.

Numerous references were made during the debate to Argentina, the United States, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Lula likened his rival to the Argentine President Javier Milei and the US President Donald Trump. Flávio Bolsonaro, on the other hand, compared the Brazilian head of state to the Nicaraguan dictator Daniel Ortega and the ousted Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro. The tension continued right until the end. Lula accused the Bolsonaro family of being “subordinate to American interests” and challenged him to reveal his banking and tax records, “so that the people will know who the thief is”. His closing remarks began amidst some commotion in the audience, as Flávio walked past him. “I know how to get this country growing again,” he promised.

Lula appears to be making a comeback. According to the support received from candidates who failed to make it to the run-off, Flávio is said to have over 52 per cent of the vote, and the parties backing him collectively hold 286 out of 513 MPs and 50 out of 81 senators. But to win back votes from the record 21.08 per cent of non-voters, the president is making all manner of promises; and after granting aid to low-income sectors, fuel subsidies and relief for taxi drivers and small business owners – including debt write-offs for 3.6 million micro-entrepreneurs – he has had the five-day working week enshrined in the Constitution and is now even promising to include Brazilians’ right to free transport at weekends. Economists are beginning to worry about the sustainability of these proposals, but after trailing by six points in the polls on 8 October, Lula narrowed the gap to two points on Wednesday, reached a technical tie on Friday, and on Sunday Vox Brasil put him in the lead for the first time, with 51 per cent.