What is Trump doing wrong by involving Putin in the pressure on Iran?

Tel Aviv, from our correspondent. What Donald Trump, Elon Musk and Pete Hegseth have dealt to Ukraine is not a slap in the face. It is a diplomatic beating with deadly consequences, organised in collusion with the Kremlin leader, Vladimir Putin, whom the American president refused to call ‘a dictator’ because, as he explained, ‘I have to make deals with people; so I don’t go round insulting them. ‘I’m a master at striking deals. I’ve always been a very skilful negotiator. It’s thanks to these deals that I’ve become very rich. That’s why I don’t go round mocking people.’ Last year, however, Trump had no qualms about using the word ‘dictator’ in reference to Volodymyr Zelensky, despite being in the process of negotiating a minerals deal with Ukraine. Elon Musk, the creator of Starlink—whose operations in Ukraine were scaled back at the request of the Pentagon led by Hegseth—also said that the time had come for Zelensky to step down, highlighting a contradiction in the talk of democracy: Musk and Trump are calling for Zelensky’s resignation and elections in Ukraine not because the Ukrainians want this – the majority of whom do not agree to go to the polls whilst the war is ongoing – but because it is Putin who is demanding the delegitimisation and surrender of the Ukrainian president and wants elections in the country he has invaded in order to try to influence the vote. The U.S. administration is confusing allies with non-allies, breaking the mold of international coalitions in its search for reassurance and a way out of a war it is unable to bring to a successful conclusion: not the war between Russia and Ukraine – which Trump had promised to end within twenty-four hours – but the war against the Islamic Republic of Iran, in which the Kremlin leader has offered to mediate and lend Trump a hand, asking in return for Kyiv to be crushed. According to the Russian press, during a summit in Turkmenistan last week, Putin reportedly met with the Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and the two discussed an Iranian proposal to end the war. 

No one knows the details of the proposal, but Putin is said to have outlined them to Trump during the telephone call in which the two agreed that Russia would release four million tonnes of diesel onto the global market. The Islamic Republic of Iran is at the forefront of Trump’s mind; it is also the linchpin of Putin’s negotiations, despite the Kremlin having helped the Iranians to strike US bases in the Middle East. Russia led the Iranian attacks by providing intelligence, whilst Ukraine offered protection against Shahed drones to countries targeted by Tehran, but Trump has never been willing to acknowledge either the Kremlin’s involvement or Ukraine’s role.

Moscow and the Islamic Republic of Iran have a relationship of interdependence; one serves the other’s war effort. The fibre-optic drones that the Lebanese group Hezbollah – an Iranian proxy in Lebanon – has used against Israeli soldiers are the same ones the Russians are using against Ukraine. The parallels are constant; the Russians know whose side to be on, as do the Ukrainians; only Trump has lost his way and, in his quest for personal victory, has thrown all the rules out the window. Yesterday, the American president said: “Iran will be defeated very soon.” War is inevitable; the question is when and to what extent, in the run-up to the elections in Israel on 27 October and in the United States on 3 November. In the Middle East, everything is falling into place, and yesterday a series of signals, news reports and rumours helped to bring the path to conflict closer: the US aircraft carrier USS Bush, which had been in Thailand, has returned to the Arabian Sea and, together with the USS Washington, is the second carrier present in the region; according to the Emirati press, Iran has warned Hezbollah to prepare for conflict, whilst the leadership in Tehran is now certain that attacks will resume; the Israeli security apparatus has warned Hezbollah not to break the ceasefire and held a meeting last night. The Iranians are beginning to issue threats to neighbouring countries, hoping they will mobilise to block the US president and create a containment network around him, but they have few levers of influence: the Saudis, who have so far been the weak link, are already under attack from the Houthis; the Emiratis are not receptive to the idea; and then there is Israel, which would probably join the fighting again this time, just as it did on 28 February, when, alongside the US operation ‘Epic Fury’, Israeli fighter jets also took to the skies for Operation ‘Roaring Lion’. It will start again – at the HaCarmel market in Tel Aviv, a shopkeeper sighs and says: “The rain will come anyway; we’ll stay in the shelters” – and it is unclear what Trump asked of Putin or what Putin can do to help Trump with Iran. Israel is pressing to return to war because it is convinced that no external action can force the leadership in Tehran to back down, and only military action can bring about concessions. There are two options: to strike ‘Pickaxe Mountain’, where the Iranians are said to have resumed nuclear activity – the attack might require the MOAB, dubbed by the press as ‘the mother of all bombs’ – or to launch a campaign against energy infrastructure. According to several analysts, however, it is doubtful that Iran will give in any time soon; what is certain is that it will react once again by using Putin’s intelligence and weapons.