The now very real danger of a divided Poland

The individual planning an attack to kill Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz has been arrested. News that the lives of the two men were in danger emerged at the weekend, and the Polish press reported that the threat stemmed primarily from far-right circles. It is a tense period in Poland; militarily, the country is facing the Russian threat, with Moscow’s drones encroaching on Polish territory. The country’s defences are frequently activated when Ukraine comes under attack; Warsaw is exposed and, over the years, has managed to foil several sabotage attempts and uncover espionage networks linked to Russian intelligence. Politically, however, the unity required of a country in danger is lacking, and the forthcoming elections, scheduled for October 2027, will see a contest that will also, for the first time, take Poland’s international standing into account. Political violence in the country has already claimed its victims.

On 14 January 2019, the mayor of Gdańsk, Pawel Adamowicz, was stabbed in the heart whilst on stage at a major charity event. The assailant took to the stage, stabbed him, made a statement claiming responsibility by taking the microphone, and was immediately arrested. He said he had been driven to kill Adamowicz because, due to his party – which is the same Civic Coalition led by Donald Tusk – he had been in prison, and furthermore he viewed the mayor and his positions as a threat to Poland. Adamowicz was one of the targets of Eurosceptic campaigns; from that moment on, it became clear that the clash between the two factions on the Polish political spectrum had reached a dangerously critical point. Attempts were made to remedy the situation, but the polarisation has persisted and the country is now gearing up for the election campaign. Underlying this are scandals, such as that involving the cryptocurrency platform Zondacrypto, its missing CEO and his links to the previous PiS government, as well as military threats. The prevailing image is of a Poland that remains split down the middle, and is now more fragile than ever.