The Kremlin is seeking partners in Washington

Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and US Special Envoy for Peace, is reported by Reuters to have discussed with Vladimir Putin’s adviser, Kirill Dmitriev, the entry of an American investor into Nord Stream AG, the company that controls the Nord Stream 1 gas pipelines between Russia and Germany. The White House has denied any recent talks on Nord Stream, whilst an official quoted by Reuters reportedly deemed the deal unlikely in the medium term. US and European sanctions, for the time being, do not allow the gas pipelines to be reopened; they have been shut down since 31 August 2022 and were subsequently sabotaged with explosive charges (gas flows via Nord Stream 2, on the other hand, were never initiated). Furthermore, the EU regulation approved on 26 January also provides for a complete ban on imports of Russian gas (LNG from next January, and via pipeline from autumn 2027).

If an American investor were to acquire a stake in Nord Stream, with Trump’s son-in-law acting as an intermediary, they would, however, have an interest in seeing sanctions against the Kremlin eased (something that has already happened this year with the temporary US exemptions on Russian crude oil, following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz). Dmitriev has long been campaigning to resume gas sales to Germany via pipeline, a move which the AfD has said it supports. But the new revenue would strengthen Russia during the war with Ukraine. Moreover, the script is already familiar: the Kremlin peddles the myth of being a reliable supplier to the EU, and as soon as the EU finds itself in difficulty, Moscow exploits European vulnerabilities to exert political pressure. This occurred in 2021, months before the invasion of Ukraine, when Gazprom (which controls 51 per cent of Nord Stream AG) reduced gas flows to the EU as a retaliatory measure, refusing additional spot sales and leaving its European storage facilities half-empty. This squeeze paved the way for the 2022 energy crisis, when Gazprom once again reduced gas flows under technical pretexts, eventually shutting down the Nord Stream pipeline entirely.