How the ‘Catalonia factor’ shapes the political balance of power in Spain

Madrid. For Sánchez, it is a twist of fate. His government came into being thanks to the seven MPs from Junts, the Catalan separatists who in 2023 voted in favour of a motion of confidence in exchange for a promise of amnesty for leaders who had been convicted or had fled abroad, but it fell as a result of the vote on the housing decrees, which were rejected by Junts itself just as the Constitutional Court’s ruling guaranteeing amnesty – following a complex legal process – was finally ready.

It came 24 hours after the Prime Minister’s resignation and brings an end to the back-and-forth between the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Court. The latter had, until now, considered the amnesty inapplicable to the offence of embezzlement (the use of public funds for the 2017 secessionist referendum). The Court of Justice of the European Union also ruled on the matter, declaring the provision not incompatible with European law. Thus, an hour after the Constitutional Court’s ruling, the Supreme Court suspended the arrest warrant against Junts leader Carles Puigdemont. The man responsible for the fall of the Madrid government has his office in Waterloo, Belgium, where he has been in exile for years. Some now anticipate a triumphant return for him, flanked by crowds, ahead of the 29 November elections. Yet he is proving cautious. On the one hand, the Supreme Court has suspended the arrest warrant, but is awaiting the details of the ruling before extending the amnesty to everyone. It must be said that, amongst the leaders of that secessionist attempt, Puigdemont has never been the bravest. Others, such as his adviser Jordi Turull (now secretary of Junts), have ended up in prison. Then, little by little, Sánchez has introduced legislation in line with his need to secure those seven votes. First a pardon, then the abolition of the offence of sedition, and finally amnesty.

Today, Catalonia – which separatists describe as an oppressed nation despite all the political and cultural safeguards in place, with perfect bilingualism even within the legislative bodies, where from 2023 MPs will be able to speak in Catalan, Basque and Galician – could once again be the region where the political fate of the (Spanish) nation will be decided.

In this parliamentary term, 40 out of 48 MPs elected from Catalonia have backed the Sánchez government: 19 Socialists plus 21 from Junts, the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and the far-left coalition Sumar-En Comú Podem. There, the ‘pro-Spanish’ right-wing parties (as they are known) bring up the rear: the People’s Party (PP) with six seats and Vox with two. However, the most recent polls, published by El Mundo, show that almost all the historically strongest parties are losing ground. The Socialists are losing ground, set to lose 11 seats if regional elections were held; Junts is also down, seemingly placing little faith in the ‘return of Ulysses/Puigdemont’ effect and leaving the spotlight of the election campaign entirely to its group leader, Míriam Nogueras. The separatists of the Catalan Alliance, whom the polls predict will make a major breakthrough (in the regional parliament they would jump from 2 to 30 seats), have decided not to stand in the Spanish general election and to focus instead on the local and regional elections this spring. Who will that windfall of votes go to? It is anyone’s guess.

On the left, ‘ERC’ might be a better choice, but much depends on what its leader in Congress, the flamboyant Gabriel Rufián, decides to do; he appears tempted to join a national project to unify the left. In Spanish it is called Frente Amplio; here it could be translated as ‘broad front’, were it not for the fact that it risks splitting over the choice of leader: Podemos split years ago and it will not be easy to pick up the pieces, whilst from Catalonia the former mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau, is making a comeback, having already lost two re-election campaigns.

A fragmented left could give the Socialists a new lease of life, as they are now clinging to anything they can. According to El Mundo, it was a national poll that prompted the Prime Minister to bring forward the elections: it predicted that Vox would win up to 80 seats, all taken from the PP, which could even fall below a PSOE in freefall. For Comrade Sánchez, the Maoist motto ‘chaos under heaven, an excellent situation’ applies. On 11 November, there is also a general strike – the first directed against the opposition rather than the government.