Bab el Mandeb: caught between the Houthis and the war in Ethiopia. Aspides may not be enough

As the days go by, the Strait of Bab el Mandeb is transforming into what appears to be a single war front, albeit divided between two distinct shores of the Red Sea. On one side, Yemeni government forces have launched a military offensive – dubbed ‘Dawn of Yemen’ – in an attempt to recapture the coastal territories that fell under the control of the pro-Iranian Houthi terrorists a month ago. Fighting is taking place in Mokha, a coastal town which, according to the forces backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, has now returned to their control. Just a few dozen miles away, on the other side of this stretch of sea, lies the Eritrean port of Assab, which has become the forbidden dream of Ahmed Abiy, the Ethiopian president who is fighting against the Tigray rebels – whom he claims are backed by the government in Asmara. 

Amidst all this, ships and cargo vessels struggle to make their way as they attempt to reach the Mediterranean or sail in the opposite direction towards the Indian Ocean. For them, the threat of ending up in the crossfire, as if in a sort of Caudine Forks, is very real. This is particularly true now that the Tigray rebels are threatening the Afar corridor, the railway line that serves as the sole link between Ethiopia and the sea at Djibouti. Ninety-five per cent of Addis Ababa’s trade passes through here, a route for which Prime Minister Abiy pays dearly – around 1.5 billion dollars a year. From this strategic outlet on the Red Sea, the Houthis’ nearest outpost is just a hundred kilometres away, on the island of Perim. If this sole access route were to be cut off by the Tigray rebels, the dispute with Eritrea over Assab could reignite, further choking off transit through the Strait.

Two distinct fronts, therefore, with different players but a single major trade hub that has been destabilised – one which could close down entirely once again, following the current halving of transit volumes compared to the pre-war period. The resumption of the conflict in Tigray thus becomes a factor to bear in mind as European countries, led by Italy, consider strengthening the Aspides naval mission. According to our Defence Minister, Guido Crosetto, a greater effort is needed from the European Union to escort cargo ships through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. At present, there are only two such vessels, and last week, whilst meeting the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs in Rome, Crosetto reiterated that greater effort is needed from Member States to provide more personnel and resources, as the current level “is still not sufficient to meet the challenges ahead”.

But doubts about the effectiveness of a reinforcement of Aspides – if it were ever to be implemented – have now grown more than ever. Whilst on one side of the coast Eritrea’s involvement is looking increasingly likely, on the other side of the sea, in Yemen, the situation on the ground remains unpredictable. In addition to Mokha, government forces said yesterday that they had ‘secured’ the Strait of Bab el-Mandab, but the Houthis deny this. In Taiz, residents are trapped, surrounded as they are by terrorists. Meanwhile, Turkey and Pakistan – allies of Saudi Arabia, which is already actively at war, having deployed around a hundred military aircraft – held an emergency meeting in Riyadh and agreed to rapidly deploy military forces to Yemen, under the terms of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement.