The German alert and the Baltic states’ decisions at the border

The defence of the Baltic states is both military and political. In Latvia, United List, the party of the outgoing Prime Minister, Andris Kulbergs, won the election with 35 per cent of the vote. An excellent result, especially as the polls had significantly underestimated its support. Pro-Russian parties have also gained ground, but for Riga, security against Moscow remains a priority and the political front holds firm, without any confusion. The military front is strengthening in that part of Europe which fears it will be next if Ukraine is not fully supported against Russian aggression, and which is also aware that it could be used by Moscow to drive a wedge into European defences. This breach is not created by missiles or a blatant invasion, but through slow, persistent work, involving covert, targeted actions. And for this reason, Estonia has decided to bolster its military personnel and deploy them much closer to its borders. It does not fear a large-scale invasion like the one Moscow is waging against Kyiv – there are no signs that the Russians are preparing one – but it does fear provocations and, as an Estonian army officer told the Financial Times, it is necessary to “win before the battle”. This is why troops are being moved closer to the border: to send a message that Tallinn and NATO are ready, vigilant and not distracted. 

Nothing will be underestimated. Yesterday, Martin Jäger, the president of the BND, Germany’s foreign intelligence service, delivered a speech to the Bundestag. He presented his findings, explaining that Berlin could be drawn into a conflict because Vladimir Putin has crossed the point at which he could have brought the conflict to an end on the front line. The Kremlin leader has gone further and further; he cannot bring himself to call a halt to the conflict and, in this situation, is prepared to risk everything, setting his sights on 2027, by which time he intends to use every means at his disposal to ‘break Ukraine’. ‘We must expect Russian attacks of a severity and brutality such as we have never seen on a large scale,’ said Jäger. Ukraine has already noticed the change; it has been bracing itself for the coming winter since the start of last summer. Moscow does not regard Europeans as external actors; it is determined to block all Western supplies to Kyiv, wants to see the Ukrainians succumb, and is seeking ways to undermine the aid we can offer. “Russia aims to undermine European political support for Ukraine. We must prepare for attempts at intimidation and further interference, as well as new nuclear threats. We must resist this,” says Jäger. Resistance is possible if we are prepared, and what the Baltic states have been doing for years is preparing for an adversary they know well. Jäger also confirmed that there are no indications of a large-scale Russian attack against NATO, but he warns that “low-threshold military activities could occur. False-flag operations cannot be ruled out, particularly in the Baltic states”.

When Moscow invaded the Georgian region of Abkhazia in the 1990s – the anniversaries of the violence from that war, now buried in memory, are being marked these days – some Ukrainians decided to go and fight as volunteers alongside the Georgians. For many, it was essential to stop Russia there before it reached Ukraine. Those warnings were ignored, and Moscow did reach Ukraine. What the Ukrainians were saying back then is what the Balts are saying today.