Bolsonaro Jr. has won the first round in Brazil and is now the clear favourite to become president

The right-wing wave sweeping the Americas has reached Brazil, and Flávio Bolsonaro is now the clear favourite to become the new president. In the first round, he secured 47.03 per cent of the vote, compared with Lula’s 45.6 per cent. In fact, as the first results came in from the south, for the first hour of the count he appeared to have secured over 50 per cent, and thus to have been elected in the first round. Then data began to pour in from the north-east of the country, a traditional stronghold of the Workers’ Party (PT), and Lula made a comeback, though not enough to secure the first place that all the polls had predicted for him. The outgoing president now admits that he had hoped to win in the first round, and describes the result as “unexpected”.

Incidentally, all the other candidates who secured more than 0.1 per cent can be classified as right-wing or centre-right: Augusto Cury at 2.89 per cent, Renan Santos at 2.24 per cent, Ronaldo Caiado at 2.18 per cent, and Romeu Zema at 0.27 per cent. Their voters alone would be enough to propel Flávio to almost 55 per cent: so far only Zema has declared his support, while the others have distanced themselves, but it is considered highly unlikely that Lula could attract any significant backing from their electorate. Consequently, even if those voters do not turn out, Flávio is still expected to win. In any case, Flávio himself should now offer them all ministerial posts in a coalition government – although he will have to reconcile this with his election promise to cut the number of ministries, in the style of Javier Milei in Argentina. For Lula, on the other hand, the only option remains to try to make up ground from a record abstention rate: 33,428,584 people who did not turn out to vote. That is 21.08 per cent, the highest figure since 1998.

Flávio Bolsonaro has also come out on top in Minas Gerais, the state where, since the return of democracy, the candidate who went on to become president has always won: just as Ohio did in the United States, up until 2020. The right’s victory is confirmed by the Senate figures. The Bolsonaros’ Liberal Party has in fact increased its seats from 15 to 28, including Flávio’s brother Carlos in Santa Catarina and his stepmother Michelle in the Federal District of Brasília – whilst his other two brothers have become members of the Chamber of Deputies: Renato in São Paulo and Jair Renan in Santa Catarina. Also on the right, the Republicans have increased their number of senators from four to six, and Zema’s Partido Novo from one to three. That makes 37 seats, with a majority requiring 42. Among the moderates of the so-called Centrão – the very epitome of that ‘salad of acronyms’ characteristic of Brazilian politics – Caiado’s Social Democratic Party (PSD) has plummeted from 14 to five; the Progressives from eight to six; the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) from nine to eight; Podemos and the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) from four to two; although the União, on the other hand, rises from three to five. The left falls from 17 to 15: Lula’s PT rises from eight to nine, but Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin’s Socialist Party falls from five to four. In the Chamber of Deputies, the Liberal Party has increased its number of deputies from 98 to 116, plus fifteen from allied parties. The Centrão has fallen from 253 to 235 seats, although its support remains essential for any government. The left has also fallen, from 125 to 122.

As for the governors elected in the first round, five liberals are among the frontrunners. Among them, in Paraná, is the former judge Sérgio Moro, who, after playing a leading role in Brazil’s ‘Clean Hands’ investigation against Lula, served as a minister under Jair Bolsonaro, subsequently fell out with him, but has now reconciled with his son. Four Social Democrats were also elected straight away, along with three from the PT, two each from the Republicans, the MDB and the Progressives, and one each from Podemos and the PSDB. It is worth noting that among the new Republican governors is Tarcísio de Freitas in São Paulo, in whose support Flávio had fallen out with his stepmother: a sensational rift that had damaged his campaign for a while, but which was eventually resolved.

"I am very pleased with the result: nearly 56 million Brazilians have given me this vote of confidence. It is a sign that Brazil wants change," was Flávio Bolsonaro’s immediate reaction. "We will work to get people to the polls, because at this historic moment for Brazil, it is essential that people vote," Lula told his supporters in São Paulo. However, it was in São Paulo itself—where he lives—that he was defeated by a margin of two and a half million votes.