Drones from Tigray are flying into Addis Ababa, but the flow of dollars continues

On Thursday morning, the World Bank’s Chief Operating Officer, Anna Bjerde, landed in Addis Ababa. Apparently full of anticipation for a meeting with senior government officials, she wrote on X about the importance of the “momentum of reforms and investments that will continue to drive the economy and create more and better jobs” in Ethiopia. At the same time, during an official ceremony also held in the capital, the vice-president of the US firm Boeing, Brad McMullen, signed an agreement with Ethiopian Airlines worth approximately 5 billion dollars for the supply of ten aircraft. Scenes from a country on the rise – were it not for the fact that just the night before, drones operated by Tigray rebels had struck Addis Ababa, causing explosions and damage in neighbourhoods close to the Ethiopian Air Force headquarters. This was an exceptional event, not only because the capital came under direct attack for the first time, but also because the rebels of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front demonstrated that they were in possession of drones – a factor that had not been anticipated a week ago when the conflict reignited.

In a paradox worthy of this Administration, the United States has so far remained silent. Although dialogue with the World Bank continues, and despite the fact that the flow of investment shows no sign of slowing down, not a single word has been uttered by the State Department regarding the risk – which is becoming more real by the day – that the resumption of the civil war in Tigray could escalate into a major regional conflict involving neighbouring countries.

The signs, however, are alarming. Also on Thursday, the Ethiopian government closed its embassy in Eritrea, accusing Asmara of supporting the Tigray rebels “through direct and indirect acts of aggression”. After expelling ten members of the diplomatic staff, Eritrea responded that it would take similar measures. Shortly afterwards, and on the same grounds, Ethiopia declared an Egyptian diplomat persona non grata, to which Egypt responded by expelling an Ethiopian diplomat.

The crisis is becoming increasingly intertwined with that of neighbouring Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates have resumed their efforts with exceptional intensity to continue arming their allies in the Horn of Africa. Rich Tedd, an expert in open-source intelligence gathering, has tracked as many as 48 flights in just one month between the Emirates and Addis Ababa airport. The aircraft are carrying weapons and equipment bound for Ethiopia and Sudan, where Ethiopian President Ahmed Abiy supports the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group fighting against the central government in Khartoum. Abiy supports them because he accuses the Sudanese Armed Forces of backing the Tigray rebels and Egypt, which in turn threatens Ethiopia’s water security through its management of the Nile’s waters.

Thus, on the border between Ethiopia and Sudan, the flow of arms from the Emirates is now enabling the RSF to prepare a major offensive in the Blue Nile region against the Sudanese Armed Forces. Another portion of the arms, however, ends up in the hands of Abiy, who is in turn preparing for a major counter-offensive in the northern Amhara region. The aim of Abu Dhabi and Addis Ababa is the same: to suppress the rebellion in Tigray in order to target Eritrea and gain control of an access route to the Red Sea, at the port of Assab. In July 2023, during a meeting with investors, Abiy had admitted that he wanted to “seize a port by peaceful means” but that if this plan failed, he would not hesitate to “use force”. Four years earlier, he had been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for bringing an end to the first civil war with Eritrea.