The UN vote is an exercise in striking a balance

Yesterday, Antonio Guterres delivered his final address to the General Assembly as Secretary-General of the United Nations. Choosing his successor is a more delicate matter than it appears: the UN is now a fragile institution, marred by scandals and paralysis, yet it remains a powerful symbol and a means of influence that is far from marginal, particularly in the Global South. The UN crisis has been the subject of debate for some time, but Donald Trump, since the start of his term, has accelerated the dismantling of American influence at the UN – an influence which, until now, had served as a counterbalance to those who today seek to overturn the global order. And it is primarily China and Russia that stand to gain from this.

Officials in Beijing frequently refer, not coincidentally, to the ‘Charter of the United Nations’, because for Xi, bending multilateral institutions to his own interests is also a way of strengthening Chinese leadership in the Global South. Reform of the Security Council is also a battleground, with China and Russia – whilst claiming to be open to change – effectively blocking it and paralysing the most operational decisions. Guterres has been accused on several occasions, particularly during the Covid pandemic, of avoiding explicit rifts with Beijing, and the next Secretary-General will also have to be a tightrope walker: it is no coincidence that the biggest risk facing Costa Rican Rebeca Grynspan is a final veto by Russia and China.