The trait that Trump and Xi have most in common is their hatred of transparency. The problem lies with the rest of the world

We know that he is elderly, that he is not in the best of health, and that every unsteady step and unexplained absence sparks weeks of speculation about his condition. We are talking about Donald Trump. But also about Xi Jinping. Today’s meeting between the world’s two most powerful leaders – representing the United States and the People’s Republic of China – is also a meeting between two models of transparency which, since Trump returned to the White House, have come to resemble one another more and more: the leader’s health, for different reasons, is a political issue in both Washington and Beijing. A lack of transparency leaves the door open to speculation and uncertainty.

It is not just a matter of the leader’s physical and mental health, which has different implications for the world’s two largest economies: in America there are clear rules of succession, whilst in China a highly dangerous power vacuum is opening up. For Trump, transparency is 'woke'; it ruins business and more – he has stated this explicitly on several occasions, for example when he explained that he had not informed Parliament of the military operation in Venezuela because its members 'talk too much'. A lack of transparency is a defining feature of the Chinese Communist Party’s leadership, which communicates only when strictly necessary and controls state media and social media with the heavy hand of censorship. But at a time when both global leaders are using secrecy to conduct their dealings, the world is forced to read the tea leaves. Yesterday, many English-language newspapers carried an article with the same headline: ‘What Xi Jinping really wants from Trump’. There are many answers: according to Hudson Lockett of Reuters, Xi is not seeking a grand bargain, but something simpler and perhaps more useful: to extend the trade truce and reach a new equilibrium that allows both leaders to declare themselves winners without tackling the intractable issues. According to the Financial Times, economic stability is only one aspect of the summit, and Beijing would have an interest in securing a reduction in US military support for Taiwan from Trump. For the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board, Taiwan is at the very heart of it all, with an explicit request from Xi to postpone or block the sale of $14 billion’s worth of US arms to Taipei; trade, rare earths, artificial intelligence and even Chinese support for Iran and Russia are, meanwhile, the other levers Trump can use to try and secure something in return. Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at SOAS, University of London, has written that we should not make the mistake of thinking that Chinese foreign policy revolves around the United States, because, in Xi’s strategy, Trump is a variable and not the end goal. Beijing wants time and space to strengthen its position in the Global South, reshape the global balance of power, and address the Taiwan issue when it is convinced it can do so. These interpretations are broadly confirmed by yesterday’s front page of the People’s Daily, which, in an editorial, emphasised the aim of building ‘constructive strategic stability’ between the two powers and presenting it as ‘a benefit for the world’. In other words: maintaining relations as they are, without any major upheavals, buying time and preventing Washington from curbing China’s rise in the coming years.

As with the leaders’ health, however, the only thing certain about today’s meeting is the speculation surrounding the lavish welcome at the White House. Reports that Xi Jinping was to be accompanied by a delegation of senior Chinese executives have been denied, a sign that expectations of major trade deals or investments will not be met. The same applies to the AI security agreements announced by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent following his meeting with Chinese Vice-President He Lifeng, which, according to Politico, are not a genuine joint threat management mechanism but merely a line of communication. To mark Xi’s visit to the White House—from which Trump has just barred media outlets such as CNN and Politico—Reporters Without Borders published a new report yesterday on “China’s global campaign to distort journalism around the world”. All in all, the two have plenty in common to discuss.