On Russia, follow Macron and Le Pen’s lead

Learning something from Macron on the one hand, and something from Le Pen on the other: what are we waiting for? A few days ago, the President of the French Republic, Emmanuel Macron, summoned the leaders of the parties represented in Parliament to the Élysée Palace to brief them on some sensitive information provided by the heads of French intelligence – including domestic, foreign and military intelligence. Macron did not merely piece together the facts – the drone attack on a passenger train travelling from Kyiv, the attempted attack on Leipzig Airport, the firing of a flare near a Danish frigate, incursions into the airspace of several European countries and the proliferation of hostile acts in most of our countries – but he chose to make the key French leaders, even those with whom he would probably not even have a coffee, face the stark truth about the Russian threat, the risks to European infrastructure and the dangers facing France itself (Michal Koudelka, head of the intelligence services of the Czech Republic – a country not hostile to Russia – said two days ago that a Russian attack could take place ‘within a few months’).

The most significant development of the meeting was an unexpected, far from predictable and little-reported decision – at least in Italy – taken by the leaders of one of Europe’s most extremist parties: Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. Le Pen and Bardella, on the letterhead of the European group ‘Patriots’ – of which Matteo Salvini’s Lega is also a member – chose to offer a lesson to all parties which, when considering the threat from Russia, tend to focus more on the risks of defending against those threats – ‘no escalation’ – than on the threats themselves. They did so in no uncertain terms, condemning “the acts of hostility committed in Europe” by Russia, affirming “our deepest solidarity with our European allies”, denouncing “the risk of an escalation of operations directed against states that support Ukraine”, and reiterating that “we will never tolerate a foreign power – in this case Russia – hoping to dictate, directly or indirectly, our country’s policy through intimidation, threats, destabilisation or psychological pressure” and adding that, whilst “questioning France’s diplomatic and strategic orientations is a legitimate part of the debate”, what is not legitimate is “foreign pressure”.

The comments made by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella are significant for several reasons. Years ago, the Rassemblement National received a loan on very favourable terms from a Czech-Russian bank amounting to around nine million euros; a few days before Macron’s meeting was convened, it appeared to be far more concerned by Macron’s alarmism than by the Russian threat, and yet, despite this, it made a calculation just a few months before the elections: what can be gained by demonstrating responsibility outweighs what can be lost by moving away from ambiguity. It is a choice similar to the one made by Giorgia Meloni in 2022 when she was in opposition and chose to collaborate with the government in supporting Ukraine. It is, however, a different move from the one adopted today by a significant section of the Italian political elite – and we are not just talking about Vannacci – who, faced with the Russian threat, have deployed a different strategy. “It seems to me there is an anti-Russian anxiety that worries me,” said Matteo Salvini on 3 September. “It seems to me that the alarm was raised rather hastily,” said Giuseppe Conte on 4 September. It might be too much to expect all Italian leaders to sign a statement like the one drafted by Le Pen and Bardella. It would not be too much to hope that the Prime Minister, invoking Law 124 of 2007 – which grants the head of government ‘overall direction and general responsibility for security information policy’ – might invite all the leaders of the parties represented in Parliament to Palazzo Chigi for a meeting on national security. With one aim: to demonstrate, through facts and intelligence, that whilst everything can be discussed regarding Ukraine, the Russian threat cannot be denied, nor can pressure from Russia be accepted. Those who wish to understand may well do so. Those who do not wish to understand may continue not to. Take a leaf out of Macron’s and Le Pen’s book. What are we waiting for?