The Fish and Chips Crisis: the history and challenges of an iconic dish

Fish and chips is in crisis. White fish fillets such as cod or haddock, fried in batter, seasoned with salt and malt vinegar, and served with lemon wedges and plenty of chips, are not actually a dish that the British have been eating for very long. It was brought to the United Kingdom by Sephardic Jews who immigrated from Spain and Portugal in the 17th century: further proof of the Portuguese mastery of frying, even Japanese tempura derives from the dish that Portuguese missionaries used to prepare during the prescribed periods of fasting in the ‘quator tempora’ at the start of each season. Fish and chips then became hugely popular as an affordable ready-to-eat meal in the mid-19th century: it is not entirely clear whether this originated in London or Lancashire, home to the major industrial cities of Liverpool and Manchester. However, it was particularly established as a national icon during the Second World War, when it was one of the very few foods not subject to rationing, even at the height of the heaviest German bombardments. In short, it is a symbol of the United Kingdom, much like spaghetti and pizza for Italy, the hamburger for the United States, paella for Spain, sausages and sauerkraut for Germany, goulash for Hungary or sushi for Japan.   

However, soaring fish prices, labour costs, taxation and changing consumer tastes are all factors that are causing problems for this tradition.  In May, a survey conducted by the National Federation of Fish Friers (NFFF) revealed that 47 per cent of fish and chips shop owners described themselves as “extremely concerned” about the future of their business; a further 30 per cent were “slightly concerned”; and 20 per cent even anticipated having to close within the next 12 months. The 7,000–8,000 outlets still in business represent less than a third of the peak of 25,000 recorded in the 1930s. Small operators are struggling, but so are the big ones: Deep Blue, owner of the historic Harry Ramsden’s brand, closed nine of its restaurants last summer.

The issue is illustrated by the simple observation that the average price of a takeaway portion of fish and chips has risen by over 60 per cent in the last five years, from around £7 to £11.43: a faster rate of increase than for other takeaway foods. A family of four can end up spending nearly £50 on the meal: over €58. According to Undercurrent, a data analytics firm specialising in the fishing industry, the cod catch in the Barents Sea – the source of most of the product – has fallen from around one million tonnes in 2020 to just 285,000 tonnes this year, meaning that an 18-kg crate of cod fillets has risen in price from 160 to 330 pounds. This is also a consequence of the war in Ukraine, as the two Russian fishing companies – Murman SeaFood and the giant Norebo – have been hit by sanctions. 

However, global warming is also a factor, leading to one of the worst potato harvests ever recorded in Europe this year. Prices of cooking oil, energy costs for industrial fryers and VAT are also on the rise: VAT returned to 20 per cent in April 2022, following a temporary reduction to 5 per cent and then to 12.5 per cent during the pandemic. Local business taxes, the minimum wage and statutory sick pay have also increased.

But it is not just a question of cost. On the one hand, with the UK’s increasingly multi-ethnic character, fish and chips are gaining ground over other cheaper takeaway options: pizza, burgers, fried chicken, and Indian, Chinese and Korean cuisine. On the other hand, fried foods in general are losing popularity due to health concerns, and to combat obesity, the government has recently banned them from being served in English schools. Many fish and chip shops are trying to cut prices by using cheaper fish such as hake, plaice, tope, spiny dogfish or tilapia, or by expanding their menus to include items such as squid, fish cakes, fried chicken, sausages or kebabs. But even so, the tradition is fading.