Europe is preparing for Putin’s war

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that “Russia does not need to cross our border”; it is already waging war against Europe, using drones, acts of sabotage and disinformation, and “we know from our allies that the coming months could bring further provocations”, because Vladimir Putin is testing the unity of NATO and the European Union: we must be prepared. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski emphasised the strength of the Atlantic Alliance: speaking from memory, he wrote on X, “the number of fighter aircraft: Russia 860; the EU 1,600; NATO 4,500, including fifth-generation fighters: Russia 40, the EU 200, NATO 1,100”. What is needed is political will, the ability to remain united and the capacity to prepare: the threat is no longer in doubt. French President Emmanuel Macron summoned the intelligence services, the military and leaders of all political parties to the Élysée Palace after receiving an intelligence briefing detailing the intensification of Russian attacks against European targets. “No one is safe,” said Macron, announcing plans to secure French infrastructure, whilst at the same time sending the same message as the government in Warsaw: we must be prepared. In Berlin, too, Chancellor Friedrich Merz – who is fighting, even more resolutely than France itself, against the rise of a far right that calls for Ukraine’s capitulation and a dialogue with Moscow that is, at best, a form of vassalage – said: this is the moment when everything changes, when we can pit our unity against Russia’s war aims. Every speech evokes memories of September 1939; Tusk, who is from Gdańsk, recalled those who, in May of that year, asked: ‘Who wants to die for Gdańsk?’ ‘A few months later, the whole of Europe was dying,’ said the Polish Prime Minister. ‘To those who claim today that this is not our war, I remind them of this lesson from history.’ Yet preparations and awareness are proceeding in different, and often reckless, ways across the various European countries. 

The Carpathian Front. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky yesterday convened the first summit of the ‘Carpathian Eight’ in Bukovel, in western Ukraine. This new forum brings together Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary and Serbia, with the participation of the EU. The aim is to build a high level of regional cooperation, ranging from security to energy, and from logistics to cross-border trade. The eight countries in the new group are those through which the routes connecting Ukraine to Europe pass and, in many cases, those most exposed to Russian attacks. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has maintained relations with Moscow and is critical of the EU’s and NATO’s support for Ukraine, was due to attend the summit but cancelled his trip to Bukovel at the last minute due to health issues. The day before yesterday, Fico had said that the war between Russia and Ukraine is “out of control” and that the risk of a Europe-wide conflict “has never been so serious”: “I do not want Slovakia to be drawn into an armed conflict because of a certain Article 5”.

NATO in Copenhagen. The chiefs of staff of the thirty-two NATO countries have been meeting in the Danish capital over the past two days, with a highly practical agenda: collective defence, technological innovation and support for Ukraine. This is the Alliance’s first major military meeting since the Ankara summit and comes at a time when the allies must translate the new deterrence plans into actual operational capabilities. One of the most urgent and practical issues concerns the US withdrawal from the European theatre, but there is considerable confusion in Copenhagen: under Pete Hegseth’s leadership, the Pentagon is going through a period of turmoil, and, for example, the Chief of Staff is still acting in an interim capacity. According to NBC, the White House is considering withdrawing at least 25,000 American soldiers from Europe – almost a third of US troops on the continent – but for the American journalist Michael Weiss, the ‘Trump-style’ solution of withdrawal is not so straightforward: under the National Defence Authorisation Act, authorisation from Congress is required to reduce troop numbers in Europe below 76,000 for more than 45 days, as well as for the transfer out of Europe of military equipment worth more than $500,000.

The army is returning to warfare. For the first time since the end of the Cold War, European armies are once again being designed for large-scale conventional warfare. This is the conclusion of the latest report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, ‘The Defence of Europe in a New Era’, which describes the most profound transformation of European armies since the 1990s. NATO has resumed thinking in terms of divisions, army corps and multinational commands. Brigades remain the basic operational units, but a high-intensity war requires structures capable of coordinating troops, artillery, air defence, logistics and reinforcements. The problem is that the rebuild is proceeding more slowly than planned. The IISS still identifies significant shortfalls in personnel, artillery, air defence, ammunition, armoured vehicles and the capacity to sustain a conflict over the long term. Poland is the exception, and many of these gaps will not be filled before 2030. Tanks illustrate the situation well: by comparing the armoured vehicle stocks of 22 NATO countries in 1991, 2011 and 2026, the IISS demonstrates a drastic reduction in armoured fleets over the last thirty years, particularly in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania and the United Kingdom. The trend is now reversing, but rebuilding a ground force requires trained crews, ammunition, maintenance and spare parts.

German hospitals and soldiers. The German Army has analysed possible war scenarios with Russia and has determined that, at certain times, there could be up to a thousand wounded soldiers a day. The country’s five military hospitals would not be able to cope with this, and under German law, civilian hospitals would also be required to provide care in the event of war. “Is our healthcare system ready? The only answer is: no,” said Benedikt Friemert, commander of the military hospital in Ulm. The problem is not limited to the number of hospital beds: medical supply chains need to be strengthened and more effective cooperation established between military and civilian healthcare facilities, and this is what is currently being worked on (there is also the issue of dependence on China for many substances used to produce medicines, but that is an even bigger story). The issue is not confined to hospitals: by the end of 2027, the 45th Panzer Brigade is expected to comprise some 4,800 German soldiers and will be permanently based in Lithuania, on NATO’s eastern flank. The brigade’s main base will be in Rudninkai, about thirty kilometres from Belarus.

The Belarusian military exercises. Belarus yesterday concluded military exercises near the border with Lithuania and Poland – citing ‘threats’ to security and acts of sabotage – close to the Suwalki Corridor, that strip of land which serves both as the only land passage between Poland and the Baltic states and as the link between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. The exercises, which lasted four days, involved the deployment of heavy equipment and troops and alarmed the Baltic states even more than usual: on the one hand, because the growing military integration between Minsk and Moscow makes the corridor a sensitive issue, and on the other because European intelligence agencies have realised that military exercises by Moscow and Minsk almost always mask operational plans involving incidents, hybrid activities and, above all, war simulations against NATO, reconnaissance attempts and tests of air defence responses.

The Baltic states’ preparations. The Baltic states are also among those best prepared for the worst. In recent days, Lithuania has finalised plans for the evacuation of Vilnius to Poland in the event of an attack on the capital. The Lithuanian plans are very detailed, and three main routes are envisaged: one towards Poland, and the others towards the north and west. The choice of route and the order of evacuation will depend on the location and severity of the threat. According to the plan, citizens with a car should use the pre-determined routes, whilst for those unable to travel independently, the government is organising a public transport system. However, the directive is that the evacuation must begin before the direct threat materialises: if bombing is already underway, the advice is to remain in shelters.

Troop movements. In addition to the NATO reconnaissance aircraft that have been monitoring the manoeuvring area of the Belarusian exercises in recent days, the military exercise ‘Silver Wotan’, involving German and Swedish forces, is currently underway on Gotland, the strategic Swedish island in the Baltic Sea. The aim is to test the ability to rapidly deploy reinforcements to the island and to defend it in the event of a crisis, with a particular focus on security in the Baltic region.

The British ‘War Book’. The United Kingdom has dusted off its ‘War Book’, which had been shelved following many years of peace (there is a splendid copy from 1976, with handwritten notes held together by a rubber band, in the National Archives at Kew). All government departments have now been mobilised to finalise lists and identify requirements or military assets by the end of the year, in the event that the country should go to war. The government has also announced a major national exercise in 2027, ranging from local response to ministerial level and involving hundreds of officials. Unlike many other European countries, there is no constant division of opinion in the UK over the need to defend Ukraine: the British have made many reckless decisions, but they do not waver on the Russian threat.