Trump’s imaginary deal and the Ukrainians’ Operation Vivaldi, which is forcing the Russians to retreat

“It is the war between Russia and Ukraine that is causing the rise in diesel prices, ‘not Iran’,” Donald Trump wrote on Monday on Truth, announcing that both Ukraine and Russia had agreed not to target energy-related infrastructure. Ukrainian sources had indicated that a ceasefire was being worked on, and Volodymyr Zelensky said he was ready to halt the attacks. Vladimir Putin, however, is not; there is nothing in the Russian president’s decisions to suggest a willingness to end the war (see Michael Kimmage in Foreign Affairs for further confirmation), and it is reasonable to assume that the all-powerful American president has decided that the Kremlin is on board: if I say so, it’s true. 

In the daily onslaught against the Ukrainians, Russia has struck petrol stations in Kyiv and the port of Odessa, whilst Ukrainian forces have struck a Russian refinery in Syzran. The war continues, but whatever Trump may think and whatever Putin may say, on the front line the situation is neither at a standstill nor catastrophic: the Ukrainians’ Operation Vivaldi has recaptured 75 square kilometres previously occupied by the Russians. The Ukrainian counter-offensive in the northern Donetsk region has regained control of several settlements and inflicted significant losses on Russian forces, said the commander of the Third Army Corps, Andrii Biletskyi, in a video that ends to the strains of Vivaldi’s Four Seasons. As in the best operations, a media blackout allowed Ukrainian troops to clear Russian infiltrators from Novoselivka, Oleksandrivka, Yarova, the outskirts of Korovyi Yar and Serednie. According to Biletskyi, the counter-offensive dealt a ‘severe blow’ to the combat capabilities of the Russian 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies, with 1,500 Russian soldiers killed, and 2,000 drones and hundreds of armoured vehicles, artillery systems and other Russian vehicles lost. The counter-offensive also severed the Russians’ supply lines, forcing them to relocate part of their fuel supplies outside Ukrainian territory.

“A lot of information is currently circulating,” said Biletskyi, “suggesting that the ultimate objective of the operation is to reach the banks of the Chornyi Zherebets River. But our operation is called ‘Vivaldi’, and Vivaldi, as we know, has four seasons.” This is only the first season, and it comes after the Ukrainians have advanced in several sectors of the front line in recent weeks, as recorded by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), particularly in the regions of Kharkiv, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. On 12 September, the ISW reported that Ukrainian forces had rolled back much of the territorial gains made by Russia since March 2026, whilst simultaneously carrying out effective counter-offensives. According to the think tank, Ukrainian forces have been countering the Russian initiative on the battlefield since the end of 2025 and throughout 2026, and this marks the first lasting shift since the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region of Russia in August 2024.