Europeans in Kyiv (under attack) say more pressure is needed on Putin to bring him to the negotiating table

Kyiv. On the morning of 13 September, the diplomatic train carrying foreign guests attending the Yalta European Strategy (YES) conference, including former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, crossed the border between Ukraine and Poland. They were returning home after two days of discussions in Kyiv. Just as the diplomatic convoy had passed the Ukrainian station of Yahodyn, there was an explosion: a Russian drone struck the locomotive of a passenger train arriving immediately afterwards, just two kilometres from the Polish border. Thanks to a timely warning, no one was injured. “It is highly likely that the Russian drone’s target was in fact the diplomatic train, which had departed from the station ahead of schedule,” reads an official statement from Ukrainian Railways. 

On 11 and 12 September, the 700 guests at the YES event, organised annually by the Victor Pinchuk Foundation, discussed how to force Russia to make peace more quickly. Given the complex security situation in Kyiv, the event was held in the basement of a five-star hotel. The mere presence of such a large number of foreign guests was intended to demonstrate to Moscow that its intimidation tactics do not work on its allies. “If we remain united, we will be stronger and more effective,” said Fabrizio Saggio, national security adviser to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. In his view, Europe must be fully involved in the peace process. “After all, this is not just a matter concerning Ukraine, but the very security of Europe,” he told Il Foglio. Saggio spoke at the YES conference alongside the national security advisers from Germany, the United Kingdom and France, who strongly reaffirmed the unity of their position. However, Europe faces significant challenges. Elections are due to be held in several countries next year, but future elections must not be allowed to undermine current support for Ukraine: “There is no time to lose,” Saggio emphasised.

Andriy Biletsky, commander of the 3rd Army Corps, explained that Russia is currently pursuing two strategic objectives: the complete conquest of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and the wearing down of Ukraine’s capacity to resist, with the hope of achieving these objectives by early 2027. Biletsky considers this plan unrealistic: “Ukrainian forces have a good chance of holding their strategic defensive lines and even improving their positions in certain sectors of the Donetsk front,” he told the international audience. If they succeed, according to the commander, between March and April 2027 the Kremlin will find itself questioning the very point of continuing the war.

The head of the President’s Office, Kyrylo Budanov, however, expects negotiations to intensify as early as this autumn, immediately following the Russian parliamentary elections on 18–20 September: “We are preparing for October,” he announced. According to Budanov, the Russian economy is already facing serious problems: twenty years ago, the value of Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, was estimated at $270 billion, whilst “today, according to various estimates, it has plummeted to $30 billion”. However, the Ukrainian economy is also suffering, it was noted on the sidelines of the forum: Russia continues to target railways, depots and businesses, as well as maintaining its blockade on wheat exports from the Black Sea. Ukrainian airspace remains inadequately protected due to a severe shortage of missiles capable of intercepting ballistic threats. With a harsh winter approaching and energy problems resurfacing, Moscow may seek to prolong the conflict even further.

Despite this, Ukraine must continue to pursue a strategy of refusing to cede territory and step up attacks behind enemy lines. Its partners, for their part, must increase their support and pressure on Russia to finally bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, argues Jonathan Powell, national security adviser to British Prime Minister Andy Burnham: “I believe that the escalation we are discussing is not a problem, but a sign of success,” he said during his speech. “It shows that the pressure we are exerting on Putin is finally bearing fruit.” To ensure that the negotiations yield results, he added, it is necessary to maintain contact with the Russian side as well.

Jared Kushner, the US President’s special envoy, speaking via video link following his recent visits to both Moscow and Kyiv, expressed the view that all parties now wish to see an end to the war. “President Zelensky is strongly committed to this,” he said: “From what we have seen and heard, President Putin is also very committed,” he added in a diplomatic tone. The remark prompted smiles from many in the room.