The Swedes are divided on many issues but united against the Kremlin

Tomorrow, Sweden will vote for the first time since joining NATO. The country is preparing to elect a new Parliament and faces a crossroads “that could change its history and its future”, says Magda Andersson, leader of the diverse centre-left coalition challenging Ulf Kristersson’s government, which is seeking to move even further to the right. Until a few days ago, the polls pointed to a foregone conclusion, clearly in favour of the opposition. However, the Social Democrats have since begun to lose ground: on the eve of the election, the picture looks rather uncertain, with the minority parties’ lead having narrowed to just 2.5 percentage points.

The final stretch will be decisive and is being played out on three main fronts: security, welfare and the Russian threat. There is bipartisan concern about these issues in words, and they may well have tainted this campaign too, following many others across Europe. Prime Minister Kristersson leads the Moderate Party, backed by a majority of conservative forces but also receiving external support from the Sweden Democrats: a far-right, populist and anti-establishment party which, in recent years, has gained significant support by positioning itself as a bulwark against immigration and the alleged Islamisation of the country. It had already been the second most voted-for party in 2022, and since then has remained steadily around 20 per cent. The new development that is shaking up the parliamentary landscape is that, for the first time, Kristersson has announced that the Sweden Democrats would be a full member of the future governing coalition.

A prospect that has alarmed large sections of the public, despite reassurances from those directly involved – accompanied by apologies for their neo-Nazi and anti-Semitic roots, from which they are committed to distancing themselves. On the other side, the problem for Andersson’s Socialists – as the Financial Times also notes – is that in these final stages of the election campaign, their main campaign plank has been the so-called ‘green reset’: a sort of ecological repositioning of the government’s agenda, capitalising on the abundant supply of raw materials in the energy and manufacturing sectors. As well as slogans, this is also a necessity dictated by events – such as the recent bankruptcy of Northvolt, a key European producer of lithium-ion batteries that has been crushed by Chinese technological competition. But this is not an issue that draws voters to the polls. This is why the centrist parties are gaining ground, and could play a key role in the coming weeks. It is a paradox in Sweden: the Centre Party and the Liberals sit side by side in Brussels, within the ranks of Renew Europe, yet in Stockholm they have chosen opposing paths. The former have aligned themselves with the left, aiming to act as a bulwark against the Sweden Democrats but also as a ‘voice of reason’ within a potentially highly ideological government. The latter, on the other hand, are already in government and have long opposed the entry of the sovereigntists: in the end, faced with a U-turn in tone and policy, they too have given in.

The rift seems difficult to explain to the moderate electorate, which has, at the same time, shifted to the right. It is primarily up to the Centre Party, with a solid 7–8 per cent of the vote, to tip the balance in this election. And to steer progressive forces towards a more critical approach to a welfare model called upon to tackle the costs of ethnic integration and an ageing population. Looming in the background is interference from the Kremlin. Compared with our part of the world, a realism dictated by geography prevails in Sweden: Russia is the greatest threat, whilst Ukraine is the ally to be supported. All parties maintain this stance without ambiguity. Yet Russia itself favours some parties over others: in recent days, the Social Democrat Andersson, citing a survey by the anti-racist organisation Expo, has called on Prime Minister Kristersson to “take urgent action against the infiltration of Putinists into the far right”. This is a widespread concern across Europe, and one that the Sweden Democrats, at least in words, do not intend to deny: if pro-Russian elements are identified, replied Jimmie Akesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats, they will be expelled from the party.