The dance between Moscow and Tehran

 The Islamic Republic of Iran has decided that the time has come to escalate the war, bringing it back to a level capable of damaging US President Donald Trump in the run-up to the mid-term elections, when Americans will pass their first judgement on the US President’s performance. The war in Iran, with its costs, carries weight in this assessment. The Iranians are prepared to provoke the US military and its allies in the Middle East, knowing that the President, given the upcoming vote, is not inclined to reignite a full-scale conflict, but only to conduct operations in the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes are mounting; Washington wants the war to remain low-intensity, whilst Tehran wants it to be high-profile and, in addition to targeting ships passing through the Strait, has resumed striking American bases in the Middle East, particularly targeting Jordan. One figure has emerged from the Iranian attacks on Amman between Tuesday and Wednesday: sixty Patriot interceptors were deployed in a single night. This figure is alarming for Washington, but also for those forced to rely on the Americans for their defence, such as the Ukrainians, who in recent meetings with Donald Trump’s representatives stated that they would need at least three hundred interceptors to get through the winter. A country that expends sixty of them in a single night and still has months of fighting ahead is unlikely to sell its stocks to an ally. 

Ukraine urgently needs Patriot missiles; it knows what lies ahead this winter, having already realised from the latest bombardments that the Kremlin intends to torment the cities and capitalise on the suffering of the Ukrainians – survivors of last winter’s relentless attacks on energy infrastructure, which left them exposed to the cold and without electricity. A winter of survival has given Ukrainians a sense of vigour and indestructibility; a second such winter could wear them down. Kyiv is asking to buy the Patriot systems, but if the United States needs to use them against Iran, it cannot meet Ukraine’s requests. Vladimir Putin is aware that war is a dance for two that he is performing alongside Tehran; whilst the Iranian regime’s requests for help were initially a nuisance to the Kremlin leader, he has now realised how to use the Middle East to his advantage: by helping the Iranians fight the Americans, he is diverting resources away from the Ukrainians.

Putin has used Iran as a gateway to cooperation with Trump and also discussed the matter during the recent visit by the American envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. He did not mention the military aid he is providing to the regime, but reiterated that he can cooperate in resolving the conflict. Witkoff and Kushner, just like Trump, show more interest in the Middle East than in Europe; therefore, Putin speaks to them in a language he knows they can understand, using it to win them over, find common ground, and strike the right rhythm in this dance for two. The situation will be different when CIA Director John Ratcliffe takes the place of the two envoys. According to the Financial Times, the US administration could announce the decision to entrust the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to Ratcliffe, the man who tells the Ukrainians which targets to strike in Russia. Trump, according to the British newspaper, has not yet made a final decision, but it would be a major change: spies do not mediate, they report. And Putin, who has always invited Witkoff and Kushner to the Kremlin, refused to meet Ratcliffe when, at the end of August, the CIA chief made a surprise visit to Russia.