ISPI wants to look beyond the facts, says President Zappia. Giugliano at the helm of the new direction

Anticipating scenarios, as well as analysing the facts. This is the challenge undertaken by the new direction of the Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), which will be headed by journalist Ferdinando Giugliano from 15 September. “We’ve been lacking this kind of professional figure for some time now – someone capable of managing day-to-day coordination,” explains Mariangela Zappia, president of ISPI and former Italian ambassador to the United States, to Il Foglio. “I was looking for an economist – someone with good communication skills and ready to continue our work as a risk observatory. This is the next step ISPI must take: to provide guidance, as far as possible, as well as to conduct in-depth analysis. Especially at this time of great geopolitical complexity, when the ability to communicate the findings of our research to the wider public becomes crucial.”

Giugliano is a journalist with a proven track record. He has worked for *La Repubblica*, Bloomberg and the *Financial Times*, before becoming the spokesperson for the Prime Minister’s Office during the Draghi government (2021–2022). He subsequently became head of institutional relations at UniCredit. “Ferdinando and I come from very different backgrounds, which complement each other well within a well-oiled machine,” continues Zappia. “We simply needed to map out the next steps: more focus on geo-economics, a better understanding of risks, and greater responsiveness in identifying solutions to complex problems.” The Trump factor, the resurgence of extremism, the situation in Ukraine. “The latest events in Kyiv illustrate well where and how we can make an impact as a research organisation. Something is bound to come out of Ukraine: Putin will not be able to back down on certain aspects that triggered this conflict; he is a prisoner of his own policy. At the same time, Zelenskyy is suffering due to the US’s retreat, and if a different balance of power emerges in Europe from the current one, the pressure on the invaded country will increase further. What might happen is that we end up with a sort of ‘Korean-style’ stalemate, or even some territorial concessions in exchange for terms yet to be clarified. As ISPI, it is our task to map out and clearly communicate these scenarios. We must be bolder in imagining what might happen: this also applies to the Middle East, even though the level of internal complexity there is even greater. We are Italy’s leading think tank, with a strong international reputation that we must further strengthen.”

Can ISPI therefore also act as a watchdog for public opinion? “The role of these research institutes – this third sector – is precisely to provide the necessary tools,” explains the president. “If ISPI were consistently able to debunk populist narratives from both the right and the left – from immigration to economic crises – by countering them with the facts, without partisanship, it would be a valuable contribution in the fight against the growing disinformation of our times”. The problem is that data itself is now increasingly being discredited and viewed with suspicion: for a significant section of the population, the main priority is to reinforce their pre-existing beliefs. “And this is where the challenge of communication lies: we must find a way to convey the reality of the situation more directly. It is true that data can be manipulated. But it is the data itself that explains how the world works: we must present it as neutrally as possible, whilst remaining firm in the face of the distortions of populist politics.”

According to Zappia, in this respect we have more effective defences in Italy than in America. “A reality I know very well: at least here we still have mainstream media that is incisive and effective – despite all its flaws – whilst in the United States everyone now turns to their own podcast, their own bubble of manipulation within an increasingly fragmented reality. People are fed up, and the risk of polarisation is growing. So today, research centres such as ISPI are called upon to make their voices heard and objectively analyse what is happening around us. We cannot leave this battle to others.”