Sanctions are putting pressure on Tehran

The Iranian economy was already in deep crisis even before the conflict with the United States began; in January, inflation and the collapse of the rial, the Iranian currency, had triggered mass protests that were violently suppressed, then Operation Epic Fury began, and the regime shifted to a war economy, focusing all its efforts on controlling the Strait of Hormuz and adopting a line of intransigence. In recent days, the rial has once again hit record lows; sources within the regime have told Reuters that Tehran has only enough petrol reserves to last another two months, and the Trump Administration’s measures to block oil exports and prevent Iran from circumventing sanctions are becoming ‘increasingly difficult to counter’.

Yesterday, the Treasury Department announced that the European Union would also be joining the sanctions to exclude Iran from the international banking system; for Washington, this is proof that pressure on Tehran is mounting, even though Brussels has so far offered support for US pressure, but there is no trace in any document or statement of its direct involvement in the sanctions. Over the years, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has built a sophisticated apparatus to circumvent sanctions. What is changing, Iranian sources told Reuters, is that the attempt to prevent Iran from accessing the international financing networks in other countries – which it has long used to keep its economy running – “poses a real and urgent threat”. The financial crisis is reportedly hampering the network used to circumvent sanctions – comprising front companies, unregistered oil tankers and smuggling – which has now become too costly. The result is soaring inflation and unemployment, plunging the population into despair and increasing the likelihood of further protests and an economic collapse: some are beginning to recognise that this poses a threat to the regime’s very stability.